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title="Free"></i></h1> </div> <div class="wi-authors at-ArticleAuthors"> <div class="al-authors-list"> <span class="al-author-name-more js-flyout-wrap"><a class="linked-name js-linked-name-trigger" href="javascript:;">Jacco沃利咖</一個><span class="delimiter">,</gydF4y2Baspan><span class="al-author-info-wrap arrow-up"> <div class="info-card-author authorInfo_OUP_ArticleTop_Info_Widget"> <div class="name-role-wrap"> <div class="info-card-name"> Jacco沃利咖<gydF4y2Baspan class="info-card-footnote"><span class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-d362914e130"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="d362914e130" data-open="d362914e130" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default"> </a></span> </div> </div> <div class="info-author-correspondence"> <div content-id="d362914e130"> 函授博士Jacco沃利咖國家公共衛生和環境研究所,安東尼範Leeuwenhoeklaan 9, 3721毫安Bilthoven荷蘭(電子郵件:<一個href="mailto:jacco.wallinga@rivm.nl">jacco.wallinga@rivm.nl</一個>)。</gydF4y2Badiv> </div> <div class="info-card-search-label"> 尋找其他作品的作者:</gydF4y2Badiv> <div 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class="abstract"> <p class="chapter-para">傳輸參數的估計已經有問題的疾病,主要依靠在人與人之間傳播的病原體通過小傳染性飛沫。不同年齡組傳輸參數確定等呼吸道代理將傳播在不同年齡組人口。估計這些參數的值是必不可少的在規劃一個有效應對潛在的毀滅性的天花或流感大流行和設計控製策略對麻疹、腮腺炎等疾病。在這項研究中,作者估計特定年齡段傳輸參數增加傳染病在自我報告的數據和輔助數據的會話夥伴每人。他們表明,模型,使用傳輸參數基於這些自我報告的社會聯係更能捕捉到流通的地方性地感染腮腺炎的觀察模式,以及觀察到的大流行性流感的傳播模式。估計不同年齡組傳輸參數表明,學齡兒童和年輕人將經曆感染的發病率最高,最有助於進一步傳播的感染在初始階段的新興respiratory-spread流行在完全易感人群。這些發現具有重要意義控製未來新型respiratory-spread暴發感染。</gydF4y2Bap> </section> <div class="article-metadata-panel clearfix at-ArticleMetadata"></div> <div class="kwd-group"> <a class="kwd-part kwd-main" href="javascript:;" data-keyword=""disease outbreaks"">疾病暴發</一個>,<一個class="kwd-part kwd-main" href="javascript:;" data-keyword=""disease transmission, horizontal"">疾病傳播、水平</一個>,<一個class="kwd-part kwd-main" href="javascript:;" data-keyword="infection">感染</一個>,<一個class="kwd-part kwd-main" href="javascript:;" data-keyword=""influenza, human"">人類流感,</一個>,<一個class="kwd-part kwd-main" href="javascript:;" data-keyword=""models, statistical"">模型,統計</一個>,<一個class="kwd-part kwd-main" href="javascript:;" data-keyword="mumps">流行性腮腺炎</一個>,<一個class="kwd-part kwd-main" href="javascript:;" data-keyword="statistics">統計數據</一個> </div> <div class="kwd-group"> <a class="kwd-part kwd-main" href="javascript:;" data-keyword=""BIC, Bayesian Information Criterion"">BIC,貝葉斯信息準則</一個>,<一個class="kwd-part kwd-main" href="javascript:;" data-keyword=""CI, confidence interval"">CI,置信區間</一個> </div> <p class="chapter-para">大流行性流感,天花,肺鼠疫是在人與人之間傳播主要是通過小傳染性呼吸道飛沫(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB1"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB1" data-open="BIB1" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">1</一個>)。這些疾病可能導致毀滅性的流行病,和計劃的有效應對這種流行病需要知識的模式傳播通過人口(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB2"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB2" data-open="BIB2" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">2</一個>- - - - - -<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB6"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB6" data-open="BIB6" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">6</一個>)。基本理解傳播的模式是不同年齡組傳輸參數的估計每一種疾病(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB5"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB5" data-open="BIB5" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">5</一個>)。現代工業化人口估算所需的傳輸參數是困難的,因為大流行性流感等疾病,天花,肺鼠疫沒有人口中流傳了幾十年。</gydF4y2Bap> <p class="chapter-para">各年齡段傳輸參數估計是有問題甚至其他respiratory-spread代理,流傳地域內的人口。出現困難,因為我們有更多未知的特定傳輸參數比觀察感染的風險對於每個年齡階層,因此我們麵臨一個不確定性的問題(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB7"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB7" data-open="BIB7" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">7</一個>- - - - - -<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB9"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB9" data-open="BIB9" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">9</一個>)。通常,先驗假設接觸過程調用的數量減少未知數年齡類的數量。最簡單的這樣的假設是均勻混合傳播:每個人都有平等的機會接觸任何其他個人的人口。稍微更現實的傳播假說是適當的混合:個人做出這樣的速度取決於他們的年齡隨機接觸類(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB10"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB10" data-open="BIB10" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">10</一個>,<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB11"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB11" data-open="BIB11" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">11</一個>)。其他傳播假設依賴指定結構的傳播率每個年齡類包含一個參數;不同的結構通常被稱為“誰獲得感染人”配置(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB8"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB8" data-open="BIB8" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">8</一個>,<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB12"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB12" data-open="BIB12" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">12</一個>)。</gydF4y2Bap> <p class="chapter-para">要克服的問題估計特定傳輸參數,我們可以推斷出從年齡分布可能接觸模式和家庭大小從普查數據(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB2"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB2" data-open="BIB2" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">2</一個>,<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB4"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB4" data-open="BIB4" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">4</一個>,<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB13"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB13" data-open="BIB13" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">13</一個>,<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB14"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB14" data-open="BIB14" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">14</一個>)和交通數據(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB15"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB15" data-open="BIB15" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">15</一個>)。或者,可能接觸的模式可以從個人的自我報告的社會行為(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB16"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB16" data-open="BIB16" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">16</一個>- - - - - -<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB18"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB18" data-open="BIB18" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">18</一個>)。這些方法表明,個人傾向於使他們大部分的聯係與其他類似年齡的人(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB19"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB19" data-open="BIB19" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">19</一個>)。然而,這些模式的社會接觸測試選擇為他們的能力來描述觀察到的模式的感染。</gydF4y2Bap> <p class="chapter-para">的最有前途的方法之一的相對大小近似傳輸年齡要求人們經曆一些代理的頻率測量等危險事件,可以傳播感染。麵對麵的交談可能是一個合適的代理措施接觸傳染性respiratory-spread代理(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB18"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB18" data-open="BIB18" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">18</一個>)。這個想法是跟別人和讓別人傳染性respiratory-spread代理需要涉及到的人的空間距離。因此,它是合理的假設會話聯係相關的年齡分布以這樣或那樣的方式暴露個人的年齡分布(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB19"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB19" data-open="BIB19" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">19</一個>)。最簡單的這種關係,年齡分布相差隻有一個比例係數。我們將把這種傳播的假設作為“社會接觸假說”。</gydF4y2Bap> <p class="chapter-para">在本文中,我們目前的特定數量的不同的會話聯係人的信息,在荷蘭進行的大量研究。我們使用這些數據來測試社會接觸假說對替代傳輸假說,如均勻混合和混合比例。我們表明,模型,使用基於自我報告的社會聯係是最好的傳播率能夠捕捉觀察感染腮腺炎等respiratory-spread代理模式和大流行性流感。此外,我們使用模擬探索新興的初始傳播respiratory-spread代理年齡組中一個完全易感人群,和我們建議的方法來規劃等幹預措施對新興感染。</gydF4y2Bap> <h2 scrollto-destination="1400346" id="1400346" class="section-title js-splitscreen-section-title">材料和方法</h2gydF4y2Ba> <h3 scrollto-destination="1400347" id="1400347" class="section-title js-splitscreen-section-title">數據</h3gydF4y2Ba> <p class="chapter-para">信息在社會交往得到在一個大鎮的橫斷麵調查烏得勒支荷蘭,1986年(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB20"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB20" data-open="BIB20" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">20.</一個>)。從人口調查參與者被隨機選中記錄,1歲以下的人員除外。參與者發送書麵邀請一個麵對麵的麵試。如果有必要,受訪者或他們的父母參觀了在家裏比荷蘭走近用另一種語言。采訪期間,參與者報告自己的年齡和被問及家中的人的數量,不包括自己,和不同的人交談的數量在一個典型的一周,包括家庭成員,指定為六類:年齡0 - 5,6 - 12、13 - 19,熱帶病,40歲至59歲、≥60年。對於每一個參與者,我們添加了這兩個問題的答案來獲得各年齡段不同的談話夥伴數量的參與者遇到一個典型的一周。不完整或不一致的答案被排除在進一步分析。3084年邀請的參與者,2106回應,完成一份調查問卷,其中1813邀請參與者(59%)達到了進一步分析的標準(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB20"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB20" data-open="BIB20" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">20.</一個>)。</gydF4y2Bap> <p class="chapter-para">這個調查的參與者也腮腺炎抗體篩查。自從調查之前的引入與組合和風疹疫苗常規接種疫苗,流行性腮腺炎免疫抗體的存在提供了一個明確的指示過去的地方性地感染腮腺炎病毒傳播。1859 2106名受訪者,邀請參與者(60%)給血清樣本,可以篩查mumps-specific抗體酶聯免疫吸附試驗(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB20"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB20" data-open="BIB20" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">20.</一個>,<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB21"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB21" data-open="BIB21" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">21</一個>)。</gydF4y2Bap> <p class="chapter-para">我們評估的方向潛在nonresponse偏見在社會交往的自我報告的數量通過比較結果與類似研究的結果進行了烏特勒支在奈梅亨,荷蘭,1986年。在奈梅亨,問卷是通過郵局寄到參與者。5000人的邀請,1493(30%)填寫調查問卷並返回答案符合進一步分析的標準(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB20"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB20" data-open="BIB20" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">20.</一個>)。</gydF4y2Bap> <p class="chapter-para">流感大流行期間襲擊年齡從家庭獲得研究美國城市,克利夫蘭,俄亥俄州,在1957年(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB22"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB22" data-open="BIB22" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">22</一個>)。血清收集在1957年的春天。”“亞洲流感大流行已經通過社區8周期間,1957年10月峰值。血清又收集了在1957年底。收集到的血清進行抗體的存在特定的流感毒株的補體結合和hemagglutinin-inhibition測試;四倍或更大的效價增加至少一個測試作為一個指示器的感染(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB22"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB22" data-open="BIB22" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">22</一個>)。我們使用128名參與者的信息,不包括接種疫苗後參與者和成年人(在成人的結果不能代表,因為這項研究針對的是有孩子的家庭)。</gydF4y2Bap> <h3 scrollto-destination="1400352" id="1400352" class="section-title js-splitscreen-section-title">評估特定的社會接觸</h3gydF4y2Ba> <p class="chapter-para">我們安排自我對話夥伴按年齡的平均數字類的“社會接觸矩陣”<gydF4y2Bastrong>米</gydF4y2Bastrong>。每個矩陣元素,<gydF4y2Baem>米</gydF4y2Baem><sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub>每周,對話夥伴的平均數的年齡階級<gydF4y2Baem>我</gydF4y2Baem>據一個參與者的年齡階級<gydF4y2Baem>j</gydF4y2Baem>。估計的矩陣元素<gydF4y2Baem>米</gydF4y2Baem><sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub>,我們必須考慮會話的互惠性質聯係(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB23"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB23" data-open="BIB23" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">23</一個>)。在個體層麵,這意味著,如果約翰和瑪麗,瑪麗和約翰。還必須有一個談話在人口級別,這意味著從年齡類接觸的總數<gydF4y2Baem>j</gydF4y2Baem>年齡階層<gydF4y2Baem>我</gydF4y2Baem>必須等於總數從年齡級的聯係人嗎<gydF4y2Baem>我</gydF4y2Baem>年齡階層<gydF4y2Baem>j</gydF4y2Baem>。如果我們有<gydF4y2Baem>w</gydF4y2Baem><sub><em>我</gydF4y2Baem></sub>個人的年齡階級<gydF4y2Baem>我</gydF4y2Baem>和<gydF4y2Baem>w</gydF4y2Baem><sub><em>j</gydF4y2Baem></sub>個人的年齡階級<gydF4y2Baem>j</gydF4y2Baem>因此,互惠要求<gydF4y2Baem>米</gydF4y2Baem><sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub><em>w</gydF4y2Baem><sub><em>j</gydF4y2Baem></sub>=<gydF4y2Baem>米</gydF4y2Baem><sub><em>霽</gydF4y2Baem></sub><em>w</gydF4y2Baem><sub><em>我</gydF4y2Baem></sub>。我們估計的平均數量的自我對話夥伴<gydF4y2Baem>米</gydF4y2Baem><sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub>從報道接觸年齡階層<gydF4y2Baem>我</gydF4y2Baem>年齡階層<gydF4y2Baem>j</gydF4y2Baem>和聯係人<gydF4y2Baem>j</gydF4y2Baem>來<gydF4y2Baem>我</gydF4y2Baem>使用最大似然的方法(見<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-APP1"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="APP1" data-open="APP1" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">附錄</一個>)。</gydF4y2Bap> <h3 scrollto-destination="1400354" id="1400354" class="section-title js-splitscreen-section-title">估計不同年齡組傳輸參數</h3gydF4y2Ba> <p class="chapter-para">社會接觸假設意味著各年齡段的潛在傳染性聯係社會聯係的自我報告的特定數量成正比;我們假設在年齡類、個人隨機聯係。比例因子措施針對疾病的傳染性和表示<gydF4y2Baem>問</gydF4y2Baem>。每人各年齡段人數的潛在傳播事件由一個矩陣描述<gydF4y2Bastrong>N</gydF4y2Bastrong>= (<gydF4y2Baem>n</gydF4y2Baem><sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub>)= (<gydF4y2Baem>問</gydF4y2Baem><em>米</gydF4y2Baem><sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub>)。這個矩陣<gydF4y2Bastrong>N</gydF4y2Bastrong>被稱為“下一代矩陣”在傳染病流行病學(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB24"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB24" data-open="BIB24" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">24</一個>,<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB25"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB25" data-open="BIB25" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">25</一個>)。基本的繁殖數量<gydF4y2Baem>R</gydF4y2Baem><sub>0</gydF4y2Basub>,定義為中等數量的情況下產生的一個典型的傳染病人在他或她的整個傳染性的時期一個完全易感人群,是由這個下一代矩陣的最大特征值(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB24"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB24" data-open="BIB24" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">24</一個>,<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB25"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB25" data-open="BIB25" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">25</一個>)。</gydF4y2Bap> <p class="chapter-para">下一代矩陣<gydF4y2Bastrong>N</gydF4y2Bastrong>= (<gydF4y2Baem>問</gydF4y2Baem><em>米</gydF4y2Baem><sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub>)確定獨特的傳播率之間年齡類和感染的風險隨著年齡的變化類(見<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-APP1"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="APP1" data-open="APP1" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">附錄</一個>)。在流行平衡,至於流行性腮腺炎在引入常規疫苗接種之前,下一代矩陣<gydF4y2Bastrong>N</gydF4y2Bastrong>決定了各年齡段感染或故障率的“感染”(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB9"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB9" data-open="BIB9" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">9</一個>,<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB11"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB11" data-open="BIB11" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">11</一個>,<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB25"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB25" data-open="BIB25" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">25</一個>)。在易感人群流行病,至於流感大流行,下一代矩陣<gydF4y2Bastrong>N</gydF4y2Bastrong>確定各年齡段感染攻擊率(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB25"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB25" data-open="BIB25" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">25</一個>)。我們一直<gydF4y2Baem>米</gydF4y2Baem><sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub>固定在最大似然值和尋找傳染性參數的值<gydF4y2Baem>問</gydF4y2Baem>最大化的對數似觀察各年齡段比例的人對流行性腮腺炎免疫在烏得勒支,荷蘭,各年齡段的比例在1986年和人對大流行性流感免疫在克利夫蘭,俄亥俄州,1957年<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-APP1"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="APP1" data-open="APP1" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">附錄</一個>)。</gydF4y2Bap> <h3 scrollto-destination="1400357" id="1400357" class="section-title js-splitscreen-section-title">傳播統計測試假說對血清學的數據</h3gydF4y2Ba> <p class="chapter-para">我們比較各年齡段人數的假設潛在的傳染性聯係正比於特定數量的社會交往(“社會接觸假說”)有兩個可用的替代假說。第一個選擇是“均勻混合假設,即接觸發生在隨機的。這個假設意味著一個自由參數:整體接觸率。第二個選擇是“混合比例的假說,即接觸的利率是特定於每個年齡階層。這個假設意味著六自由參數:六歲的接觸率為每一個類。傳輸假設依賴“誰獲得感染人”配置有相同數量的參數比例混合假說和將在最好的情況下,最大對數似相同的值(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB9"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB9" data-open="BIB9" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">9</一個>,<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB12"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB12" data-open="BIB12" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">12</一個>)。這裏不需要考慮這些假設。</gydF4y2Bap> <p class="chapter-para">所有三個傳播的假設,我們計算的最大對數似血清學的觀察(見<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-APP1"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="APP1" data-open="APP1" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">附錄</一個>)。貝葉斯信息準則(BIC) (<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB26"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB26" data-open="BIB26" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">26</一個>)是用來比較的三個假設。這一標準糾正自由參數的數量的最大化對數似值和觀測的數量。BIC的規模類似於更熟悉的異常數據:不同BIC 5至10表明強有力的證據,和差異大於10表明決定性的證據支持假說BIC最低的。</gydF4y2Bap> <h3 scrollto-destination="1400360" id="1400360" class="section-title js-splitscreen-section-title">模擬的初始傳播流行病在完全易感人群</h3gydF4y2Ba> <p class="chapter-para">我們使用各年齡段社會交往模式的探討一個完全的新感染蔓延易感人群。對於任何針對疾病的傳染性<gydF4y2Baem>問</gydF4y2Baem>任何年齡,對於類索引的情況下,我們可以使用下一代矩陣計算預期的二級年齡分布情況下,然後第三情況下,等等。我們假設感染周期的持續時間更短的壽命比人類宿主,所以我們可以忽略主機在流行的老化。感染的五代之後,我們年齡等級類新感染的發生率。我們重複這些傳染性參數的計算值<gydF4y2Baem>問</gydF4y2Baem>從0.025到0.5和索引病例年齡從最年輕最古老的年齡階級。此外,我們衡量一個時代的相對貢獻類<gydF4y2Baem>我</gydF4y2Baem>的傳播感染的感染在接下來的五代。我們通過計算預期的降低新感染的人數比五代免疫接種後一個敏感的人年齡的類<gydF4y2Baem>我</gydF4y2Baem>;一個更大的貢獻進一步傳播感染的對應於一個更大的預期一個免疫的影響。</gydF4y2Bap> <h2 scrollto-destination="1400362" id="1400362" class="section-title js-splitscreen-section-title">結果</h2gydF4y2Ba> <h3 scrollto-destination="1400363" id="1400363" class="section-title js-splitscreen-section-title">不同年齡組社會聯係</h3gydF4y2Ba> <p class="chapter-para">估計數量的不同的會話夥伴揭示強烈偏好聯係其他類(在相同的年齡<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBL1"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBL1" data-open="TBL1" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">表1</一個>)。高數量的聯係人在同一年齡級為學齡兒童和年輕人。</gydF4y2Bap> <a id="1400365" scrollto-destination="1400365"></a> <div content-id="TBL1" class="table-modal table-full-width-wrap"> <div class="table-wrap table-wide"> <div class="table-wrap-title" id="TBL1" data-id="TBL1"> <span class="label"><strong>表1。</gydF4y2Bastrong></span> <div class="caption"> <p class="chapter-para"><strong>許多不同的對話與一個典型的一周,<gydF4y2Baem>米</gydF4y2Baem><sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub>從自我報告數據估計,互惠校正後,烏特勒支,荷蘭,1986年<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN1"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN1" data-open="TBLFN1" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">*</一個></strong></p> </div> </div> <div class="table-overflow"> <table role="table"> <thead> <tr> <th rowspan="3"> <hr>年齡類(年)的聯係<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="12"> <hr>年齡班(年)的參與者<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> <tr> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="2">1 - 5<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="2">6 - 12<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="2">13 - 19<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="2">熱帶病<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="2">40歲至59歲<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="2">≥60<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> <tr> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>不。<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>95%可信區間<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN2"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN2" data-open="TBLFN2" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">__</一個> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>不。<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>95%可信區間<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>不。<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>95%可信區間<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>不。<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>95%可信區間<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>不。<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>95%可信區間<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>不。<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>95%可信區間<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>0 - 5</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">12.26</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>10.36,14.06</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">2.28</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>1.80,2.80</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1.29</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>0.89,1.75</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">2.50</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>2.14,2.91</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1.15</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>0.97,1.38</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">0.83</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>0.65,1.08</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>6 - 12</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">2.72</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>2.15,3.34</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">23.77</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>21.42,26.47</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">2.80</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>2.13,3.53</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">3.02</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>2.55,3.57</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1.78</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>1.50,2.14</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1.00</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>0.84,1.16</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>13 - 19</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">2.00</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>1.38,2.71</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">3.63</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>2.76,4.58</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">25.20</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>21.77,28.61</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">5.70</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>4.91,6.56</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">4.22</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>3.63,4.90</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1.68</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>1.35,2.02</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>熱帶病</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">11.46</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>9.97,13.35</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">11.58</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>9.97,13.71</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">16.87</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>14.52,19.38</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">25.14</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>23.57,26.78</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">16.43</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>15.15,17.99</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">8.34</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>7.27,9.60</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>40歲至59歲</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">3.59</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>3.02,4.31</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">4.67</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>3.92,5.60</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">8.50</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>7.32,9.89</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">11.21</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>10.33,12.27</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">13.89</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>12.16,15.52</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">7.48</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>6.57,8.33</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>≥60<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">1.94<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td>1.53,2.53<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">1.95<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td>1.65,2.27<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">2.54<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td>2.03,3.05<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">4.25<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td>3.71,4.89<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">5.59<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td>4.91,6.23<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">9.19<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td>7.83,10.68<hgydF4y2Bar></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="table-modal"> <table> <thead> <tr> <th rowspan="3"> <hr>年齡類(年)的聯係<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="12"> <hr>年齡班(年)的參與者<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> <tr> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="2">1 - 5<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="2">6 - 12<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="2">13 - 19<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="2">熱帶病<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="2">40歲至59歲<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="2">≥60<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> <tr> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>不。<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>95%可信區間<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN2"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN2" data-open="TBLFN2" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">__</一個> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>不。<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>95%可信區間<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>不。<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>95%可信區間<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>不。<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>95%可信區間<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>不。<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>95%可信區間<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>不。<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>95%可信區間<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>0 - 5</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">12.26</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>10.36,14.06</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">2.28</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>1.80,2.80</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1.29</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>0.89,1.75</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">2.50</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>2.14,2.91</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1.15</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>0.97,1.38</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">0.83</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>0.65,1.08</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>6 - 12</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">2.72</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>2.15,3.34</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">23.77</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>21.42,26.47</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">2.80</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>2.13,3.53</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">3.02</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>2.55,3.57</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1.78</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>1.50,2.14</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1.00</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>0.84,1.16</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>13 - 19</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">2.00</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>1.38,2.71</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">3.63</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>2.76,4.58</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">25.20</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>21.77,28.61</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">5.70</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>4.91,6.56</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">4.22</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>3.63,4.90</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1.68</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>1.35,2.02</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>熱帶病</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">11.46</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>9.97,13.35</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">11.58</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>9.97,13.71</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">16.87</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>14.52,19.38</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">25.14</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>23.57,26.78</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">16.43</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>15.15,17.99</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">8.34</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>7.27,9.60</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>40歲至59歲</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">3.59</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>3.02,4.31</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">4.67</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>3.92,5.60</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">8.50</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>7.32,9.89</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">11.21</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>10.33,12.27</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">13.89</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>12.16,15.52</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">7.48</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>6.57,8.33</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>≥60<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">1.94<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td>1.53,2.53<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">1.95<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td>1.65,2.27<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">2.54<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td>2.03,3.05<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">4.25<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td>3.71,4.89<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">5.59<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td>4.91,6.23<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">9.19<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td>7.83,10.68<hgydF4y2Bar></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="table-wrap-foot"> <span id="fn-TBLFN1"></span> <div content-id="TBLFN1" class="footnote"> <span class="fn"><span class="label fn-label"><span rel="nofollow" data-fn-id="TBLFN1" class="end-note-link">*</gydF4y2Baspan></span><p class="chapter-para">獲得一個下一代矩陣為一個特定的感染,這些條目應該乘以傳染性疾病特性值的參數<gydF4y2Baem>問</gydF4y2Baem>。</gydF4y2Bap></span> </div> <span id="fn-TBLFN2"></span> <div content-id="TBLFN2" class="footnote"> <span class="fn"><span class="label fn-label"><span rel="nofollow" data-fn-id="TBLFN2" class="end-note-link">__</gydF4y2Baspan></span><p class="chapter-para">95%可信區間,95%引導置信區間。</gydF4y2Bap></span> </div> </div> <div class=" graphic-wrap "> <a class="fig-view-orig at-tableViewLarge openInAnotherWindow btn js-view-large" target="_blank" href="//www.delf06.com/view-large/1400365">打開新標簽</一個> </div> </div> </div> <div class="table-full-width-wrap"> <div class="table-wrap table-wide"> <div class="table-wrap-title" id="TBL1" data-id="TBL1"> <span class="label"><strong>表1。</gydF4y2Bastrong></span> <div class="caption"> <p class="chapter-para"><strong>許多不同的對話與一個典型的一周,<gydF4y2Baem>米</gydF4y2Baem><sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub>從自我報告數據估計,互惠校正後,烏特勒支,荷蘭,1986年<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN1"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN1" data-open="TBLFN1" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">*</一個></strong></p> </div> </div> <div class="table-overflow"> <table role="table"> <thead> <tr> <th rowspan="3"> <hr>年齡類(年)的聯係<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="12"> <hr>年齡班(年)的參與者<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> <tr> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="2">1 - 5<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="2">6 - 12<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="2">13 - 19<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="2">熱帶病<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="2">40歲至59歲<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="2">≥60<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> <tr> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>不。<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>95%可信區間<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN2"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN2" data-open="TBLFN2" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">__</一個> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>不。<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>95%可信區間<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>不。<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>95%可信區間<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>不。<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>95%可信區間<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>不。<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>95%可信區間<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>不。<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>95%可信區間<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>0 - 5</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">12.26</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>10.36,14.06</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">2.28</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>1.80,2.80</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1.29</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>0.89,1.75</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">2.50</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>2.14,2.91</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1.15</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>0.97,1.38</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">0.83</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>0.65,1.08</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>6 - 12</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">2.72</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>2.15,3.34</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">23.77</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>21.42,26.47</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">2.80</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>2.13,3.53</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">3.02</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>2.55,3.57</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1.78</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>1.50,2.14</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1.00</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>0.84,1.16</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>13 - 19</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">2.00</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>1.38,2.71</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">3.63</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>2.76,4.58</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">25.20</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>21.77,28.61</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">5.70</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>4.91,6.56</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">4.22</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>3.63,4.90</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1.68</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>1.35,2.02</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>熱帶病</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">11.46</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>9.97,13.35</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">11.58</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>9.97,13.71</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">16.87</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>14.52,19.38</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">25.14</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>23.57,26.78</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">16.43</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>15.15,17.99</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">8.34</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>7.27,9.60</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>40歲至59歲</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">3.59</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>3.02,4.31</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">4.67</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>3.92,5.60</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">8.50</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>7.32,9.89</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">11.21</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>10.33,12.27</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">13.89</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>12.16,15.52</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">7.48</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>6.57,8.33</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>≥60<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">1.94<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td>1.53,2.53<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">1.95<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td>1.65,2.27<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">2.54<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td>2.03,3.05<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">4.25<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td>3.71,4.89<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">5.59<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td>4.91,6.23<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">9.19<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td>7.83,10.68<hgydF4y2Bar></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="table-modal"> <table> <thead> <tr> <th rowspan="3"> <hr>年齡類(年)的聯係<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="12"> <hr>年齡班(年)的參與者<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> <tr> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="2">1 - 5<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="2">6 - 12<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="2">13 - 19<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="2">熱帶病<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="2">40歲至59歲<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="2">≥60<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> <tr> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>不。<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>95%可信區間<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN2"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN2" data-open="TBLFN2" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">__</一個> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>不。<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>95%可信區間<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>不。<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>95%可信區間<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>不。<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>95%可信區間<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>不。<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>95%可信區間<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>不。<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>95%可信區間<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>0 - 5</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">12.26</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>10.36,14.06</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">2.28</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>1.80,2.80</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1.29</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>0.89,1.75</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">2.50</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>2.14,2.91</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1.15</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>0.97,1.38</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">0.83</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>0.65,1.08</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>6 - 12</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">2.72</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>2.15,3.34</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">23.77</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>21.42,26.47</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">2.80</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>2.13,3.53</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">3.02</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>2.55,3.57</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1.78</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>1.50,2.14</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1.00</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>0.84,1.16</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>13 - 19</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">2.00</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>1.38,2.71</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">3.63</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>2.76,4.58</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">25.20</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>21.77,28.61</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">5.70</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>4.91,6.56</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">4.22</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>3.63,4.90</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1.68</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>1.35,2.02</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>熱帶病</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">11.46</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>9.97,13.35</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">11.58</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>9.97,13.71</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">16.87</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>14.52,19.38</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">25.14</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>23.57,26.78</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">16.43</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>15.15,17.99</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">8.34</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>7.27,9.60</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>40歲至59歲</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">3.59</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>3.02,4.31</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">4.67</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>3.92,5.60</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">8.50</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>7.32,9.89</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">11.21</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>10.33,12.27</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">13.89</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>12.16,15.52</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">7.48</tgydF4y2Bad> <td>6.57,8.33</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>≥60<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">1.94<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td>1.53,2.53<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">1.95<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td>1.65,2.27<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">2.54<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td>2.03,3.05<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">4.25<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td>3.71,4.89<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">5.59<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td>4.91,6.23<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">9.19<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td>7.83,10.68<hgydF4y2Bar></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="table-wrap-foot"> <span id="fn-TBLFN1"></span> <div content-id="TBLFN1" class="footnote"> <span class="fn"><span class="label fn-label"><span rel="nofollow" data-fn-id="TBLFN1" class="end-note-link">*</gydF4y2Baspan></span><p class="chapter-para">獲得一個下一代矩陣為一個特定的感染,這些條目應該乘以傳染性疾病特性值的參數<gydF4y2Baem>問</gydF4y2Baem>。</gydF4y2Bap></span> </div> <span id="fn-TBLFN2"></span> <div content-id="TBLFN2" class="footnote"> <span class="fn"><span class="label fn-label"><span rel="nofollow" data-fn-id="TBLFN2" class="end-note-link">__</gydF4y2Baspan></span><p class="chapter-para">95%可信區間,95%引導置信區間。</gydF4y2Bap></span> </div> </div> <div class=" graphic-wrap "> <a class="fig-view-orig at-tableViewLarge openInAnotherWindow btn js-view-large" target="_blank" href="//www.delf06.com/view-large/1400365">打開新標簽</一個> </div> </div> </div> <p class="chapter-para">不同年齡組參與或報告評估可能造成的影響進行比較多的對話夥伴<gydF4y2Baem>米</gydF4y2Baem><sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub>在修正了互惠互惠的對話夥伴的數量沒有糾正。這些數字之間的最大差異發生在接觸類13 - 19歲;這個年齡段聲稱與類熱帶病歲接觸少於亦然(見<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-APP1"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="APP1" data-open="APP1" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">附錄</一個>)。為所有年齡類比較多的接觸,我們把社會接觸矩陣的最大特征值<gydF4y2Bastrong>米</gydF4y2Bastrong>在修正了互惠和互惠的最大特征值不糾正。社會接觸矩陣的最大特征值<gydF4y2Bastrong>米</gydF4y2Bastrong>是一個適當的“平均”價值,因為它給預期的許多不同的人聯係了一個典型的一周的人剛剛聯係了。互惠校正後,這個特征值為47.48(95%可信區間(CI): 45.43, 49.72)。沒有互惠校正,這特征值是45.82。小的差異表明,平均而言,不同年齡階層集體同意他們之間發生聯係的數量。</gydF4y2Bap> <p class="chapter-para">這個調查類似的參與率達到或高於參與率達到類似的調查(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB27"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB27" data-open="BIB27" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">27</一個>)。來評估一個潛在的方向不參與偏見的報道數量的社會聯係,我們模擬的影響較低的參與率池的數據調查在烏得勒支(參與率為59%)和數據調查的奈梅亨(參與率為30%)。較低的參與率彙集數據結果的定性相似的聯係模式略高最大特征值為48.64,代表48.64每人每周不同的對話夥伴。</gydF4y2Bap> <h3 scrollto-destination="1400368" id="1400368" class="section-title js-splitscreen-section-title">傳輸的傳輸參數和測試假設</h3gydF4y2Ba> <p class="chapter-para">腮腺炎血清學的數據表明,感染的風險率最高的類6 - 12歲。這些數據提供了決定性的經驗證據支持社會接觸假說(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-FIG1"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="FIG1" data-open="FIG1" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">圖1</一個>,<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBL2"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBL2" data-open="TBL2" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">表2</一個>)。腮腺炎估計的傳染性<gydF4y2Baem>問</gydF4y2Baem>= 0.16(95%置信區間CI: 0.15, 0.17)。結果估計腮腺炎的基本繁殖數是7.68(95%置信區間CI: 6.96, 8.45)。這個估計是接近6.17和8.01的報道值為範圍廣泛的傳播模型,僅占死亡率變化聯係(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB9"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB9" data-open="BIB9" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">9</一個>,<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB12"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB12" data-open="BIB12" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">12</一個>)。傳播模型的測試與血清學的數據也顯示,估算值的基本繁殖數量和置信區間的位置敏感的模型被使用(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBL2"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBL2" data-open="TBL2" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">表2</一個>)。因此,報告的值應該被認為是條件所使用的特定的傳播模型,而不是感染的固有特征。</gydF4y2Bap> <a id="1400370" scrollto-destination="1400370"></a> <div data-id="fig1" data-content-id="fig1" class="fig fig-section js-fig-section" swap-content-for-modal="true"> <div class="label fig-label"> <strong>圖1所示。</gydF4y2Bastrong> </div> <div class="graphic-wrap"> <img class="content-image" src="https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/aje/164/10/10.1093/aje/kwj317/2/m_amjepidkwj317f01_lw.jpeg?Expires=1689125639&Signature=esrS6KCeiFmjVWIU39go6UCRxjGZca-DiymdY5NnID1LHEuefyKZYkGCF7R0Ib-GGfrR0vVYJN8SQQt62IXqqNNSaCw7gVM0Foq7zNXxntzHX0hcZdgBLaYXf980YU4n-6vRB9kS2k~~teNxwSDiTNwvuvA8Gm~kUVZraj9-tT63kAjfaoWXzR6kr6vZQNFOzlzFmfa~V7k7-xIriGSahhjrreWVpEJsF8CQjY-rv~R3qVviuatnGCs-QK6yM5KwCQZLOxwO5jo0QNcojCt~3-dzaH10fw2TM8DwOLhEM9cE38DLaZv9oUvOpVhGYA5-ar87kwOd0J5OtCUDoMayEw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA" alt="特異性免疫前流行腮腺炎介紹常規疫苗接種,烏特勒支,荷蘭,1986年。引導標記表明觀察,和酒吧代表95%置信區間與不止一個年齡組的參與者每個年齡類。線表示合適的假設自我報告的社會交往(實線),按比例混合(long-dashed線),均勻混合(short-dashed線)。gydF4y2Ba" data-path-from-xml="amjepidkwj317f01_lw.jpeg"> <div class="fig-orig original-slide"> <a class="fig-view-orig js-view-large at-figureViewLarge openInAnotherWindow" href="//www.delf06.com/view-large/figure/1400370/amjepidkwj317f01_lw.jpeg" data-path-from-xml="amjepidkwj317f01_lw.jpeg" target="_blank">打開新標簽</一個> <a data-section="1400370" href="//www.delf06.com/DownloadFile/DownloadImage.aspx?image=https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/aje/164/10/10.1093/aje/kwj317/2/amjepidkwj317f01_lw.jpeg?Expires=1689125639&Signature=FjkDUNPB-B8W5~DJw0FtpwCm6FKgSTDjZG6OtSGpLRadsyr1-MLTtFdsZhx8fggri9ZZZzUdhsDAJz4hsKN9o27oZ4AShA0Fo-S5zwlLDVGrtRzgCzvFJuY2eivfwQJt7C7LD9kWHHaRdOKHRq~SfXur9ps-grXscb4I7hXSCZWA4l00lGu37L3AG1c8Ge47rQbQ3SHzfIQ7izIjlsEsLh8AZdkTvgJfauvD6s5yjBA5B9HzbIU6FGEN5jlxLJ6lfkKIBLRohXyUBognORlbp3C3oUHvtBoWPfeLGGqDwdejvAA0VcYeOV2Ce~vDHIV8-cLUvcGFniS-eMu3SrOagQ__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA&sec=1400370&ar=162511&xsltPath=~/UI/app/XSLT&imagename=&siteId=5257" class="download-slide" data-path-from-xml="amjepidkwj317f01_lw.jpeg">下載幻燈片</一個> </div> </div> <div class="caption fig-caption"> <p class="chapter-para">特異性免疫前流行腮腺炎介紹常規疫苗接種,烏特勒支,荷蘭,1986年。引導標記表明觀察,和酒吧代表95%置信區間與不止一個年齡組的參與者每個年齡類。線表示合適的假設自我報告的社會交往(實線),按比例混合(long-dashed線),均勻混合(short-dashed線)。</gydF4y2Bap> </div> </div> <a id="1400371" scrollto-destination="1400371"></a> <div content-id="TBL2" class="table-modal table-full-width-wrap"> <div class="table-wrap table-wide"> <div class="table-wrap-title" id="TBL2" data-id="TBL2"> <span class="label"><strong>表2。</gydF4y2Bastrong></span> <div class="caption"> <p class="chapter-para"><strong>傳播結果測試假說對血清學的數據流行腮腺炎,烏特勒支,荷蘭,1986年</gydF4y2Bastrong></p> </div> </div> <div class="table-overflow"> <table role="table"> <thead> <tr> <th> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="3"> <hr>傳播的假設<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> <tr> <th> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>社會接觸<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>按比例混合<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>均勻的混合<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>不。的自由參數</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">6</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>最大化對數似<我米gclass="contentFigures" src="https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/aje/164/10/10.1093/aje/kwj317/2/m_amjepidkwj317fx1_ht.jpeg?Expires=1689125639&Signature=rqpMneT1-Xo3naU2cSVQakakWPCPOs-GgqMhWtaXP2fsHmk9FedMoOD~ZB6xregllJRldRyHQZLF8eLFfau4ai0lM5g5W76WC7dOAS0AsGHqoQCGNtVSeBP4z~D0JH9NGlUZ8ytmcEj9XeFtScXdgQpZa0SmL-N8JNwtFsEK80TqNewuIE5llZtRMoKxE5vTlQmBakEfjDm-aw9nPvJSA48P4K7ozbDoV~RJ~aYKOwmiyR4i6I4tjaslWJFnj28LfokZZV5tlrKyWPv4dU4d0hOsVN-VZJJcjaOrYZX52zclz5ZfzngSsod2gMuAV96RzbTDeU8SuLXDpAzXqY93OA__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA" alt="圖形gydF4y2Ba" data-path-from-xml="amjepidkwj317fx1_ht.jpeg"></td> <td char=".">−89.43</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">−81.52</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">−143.29</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>BIC<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN3"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN3" data-open="TBLFN3" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">*</一個></td> <td char=".">186.39</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">208.21</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">294.11</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>BIC的差異<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN4"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN4" data-open="TBLFN4" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">__</一個></td> <td char=".">0</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">21.82</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">107.72</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>基本的繁殖數量<gydF4y2Baem>R</gydF4y2Baem><sub>0</gydF4y2Basub></td> <td char=".">7.68</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">3.83</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">10.99</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>95%可信區間<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN3"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN3" data-open="TBLFN3" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">*</一個> <hr></td> <td char=".">6.96,8.45<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">3.11,4.74<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">9.66,12.82<hgydF4y2Bar></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="table-modal"> <table> <thead> <tr> <th> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="3"> <hr>傳播的假設<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> <tr> <th> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>社會接觸<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>按比例混合<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>均勻的混合<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>不。的自由參數</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">6</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>最大化對數似<我米gclass="contentFigures" src="https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/aje/164/10/10.1093/aje/kwj317/2/m_amjepidkwj317fx1_ht.jpeg?Expires=1689125639&Signature=rqpMneT1-Xo3naU2cSVQakakWPCPOs-GgqMhWtaXP2fsHmk9FedMoOD~ZB6xregllJRldRyHQZLF8eLFfau4ai0lM5g5W76WC7dOAS0AsGHqoQCGNtVSeBP4z~D0JH9NGlUZ8ytmcEj9XeFtScXdgQpZa0SmL-N8JNwtFsEK80TqNewuIE5llZtRMoKxE5vTlQmBakEfjDm-aw9nPvJSA48P4K7ozbDoV~RJ~aYKOwmiyR4i6I4tjaslWJFnj28LfokZZV5tlrKyWPv4dU4d0hOsVN-VZJJcjaOrYZX52zclz5ZfzngSsod2gMuAV96RzbTDeU8SuLXDpAzXqY93OA__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA" alt="圖形gydF4y2Ba" data-path-from-xml="amjepidkwj317fx1_ht.jpeg"></td> <td char=".">−89.43</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">−81.52</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">−143.29</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>BIC<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN3"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN3" data-open="TBLFN3" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">*</一個></td> <td char=".">186.39</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">208.21</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">294.11</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>BIC的差異<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN4"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN4" data-open="TBLFN4" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">__</一個></td> <td char=".">0</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">21.82</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">107.72</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>基本的繁殖數量<gydF4y2Baem>R</gydF4y2Baem><sub>0</gydF4y2Basub></td> <td char=".">7.68</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">3.83</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">10.99</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>95%可信區間<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN3"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN3" data-open="TBLFN3" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">*</一個> <hr></td> <td char=".">6.96,8.45<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">3.11,4.74<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">9.66,12.82<hgydF4y2Bar></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="table-wrap-foot"> <span id="fn-TBLFN3"></span> <div content-id="TBLFN3" class="footnote"> <span class="fn"><span class="label fn-label"><span rel="nofollow" data-fn-id="TBLFN3" class="end-note-link">*</gydF4y2Baspan></span><p class="chapter-para">BIC,貝葉斯信息準則;CI,置信區間。</gydF4y2Bap></span> </div> <span id="fn-TBLFN4"></span> <div content-id="TBLFN4" class="footnote"> <span class="fn"><span class="label fn-label"><span rel="nofollow" data-fn-id="TBLFN4" class="end-note-link">__</gydF4y2Baspan></span><p class="chapter-para">BIC差5和10表明強有力的證據;差異大於10表明決定性的證據支持這個假設BIC最低的價值。這裏,社會接觸假說表明決定性的證據的值超過其他兩個傳輸假設。</gydF4y2Bap></span> </div> </div> <div class=" graphic-wrap "> <a class="fig-view-orig at-tableViewLarge openInAnotherWindow btn js-view-large" target="_blank" href="//www.delf06.com/view-large/1400371">打開新標簽</一個> </div> </div> </div> <div class="table-full-width-wrap"> <div class="table-wrap table-wide"> <div class="table-wrap-title" id="TBL2" data-id="TBL2"> <span class="label"><strong>表2。</gydF4y2Bastrong></span> <div class="caption"> <p class="chapter-para"><strong>傳播結果測試假說對血清學的數據流行腮腺炎,烏特勒支,荷蘭,1986年</gydF4y2Bastrong></p> </div> </div> <div class="table-overflow"> <table role="table"> <thead> <tr> <th> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="3"> <hr>傳播的假設<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> <tr> <th> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>社會接觸<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>按比例混合<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>均勻的混合<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>不。的自由參數</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">6</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>最大化對數似<我米gclass="contentFigures" src="https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/aje/164/10/10.1093/aje/kwj317/2/m_amjepidkwj317fx1_ht.jpeg?Expires=1689125639&Signature=rqpMneT1-Xo3naU2cSVQakakWPCPOs-GgqMhWtaXP2fsHmk9FedMoOD~ZB6xregllJRldRyHQZLF8eLFfau4ai0lM5g5W76WC7dOAS0AsGHqoQCGNtVSeBP4z~D0JH9NGlUZ8ytmcEj9XeFtScXdgQpZa0SmL-N8JNwtFsEK80TqNewuIE5llZtRMoKxE5vTlQmBakEfjDm-aw9nPvJSA48P4K7ozbDoV~RJ~aYKOwmiyR4i6I4tjaslWJFnj28LfokZZV5tlrKyWPv4dU4d0hOsVN-VZJJcjaOrYZX52zclz5ZfzngSsod2gMuAV96RzbTDeU8SuLXDpAzXqY93OA__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA" alt="圖形gydF4y2Ba" data-path-from-xml="amjepidkwj317fx1_ht.jpeg"></td> <td char=".">−89.43</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">−81.52</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">−143.29</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>BIC<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN3"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN3" data-open="TBLFN3" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">*</一個></td> <td char=".">186.39</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">208.21</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">294.11</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>BIC的差異<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN4"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN4" data-open="TBLFN4" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">__</一個></td> <td char=".">0</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">21.82</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">107.72</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>基本的繁殖數量<gydF4y2Baem>R</gydF4y2Baem><sub>0</gydF4y2Basub></td> <td char=".">7.68</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">3.83</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">10.99</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>95%可信區間<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN3"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN3" data-open="TBLFN3" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">*</一個> <hr></td> <td char=".">6.96,8.45<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">3.11,4.74<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">9.66,12.82<hgydF4y2Bar></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="table-modal"> <table> <thead> <tr> <th> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="3"> <hr>傳播的假設<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> <tr> <th> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>社會接觸<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>按比例混合<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>均勻的混合<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>不。的自由參數</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">6</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>最大化對數似<我米gclass="contentFigures" src="https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/aje/164/10/10.1093/aje/kwj317/2/m_amjepidkwj317fx1_ht.jpeg?Expires=1689125639&Signature=rqpMneT1-Xo3naU2cSVQakakWPCPOs-GgqMhWtaXP2fsHmk9FedMoOD~ZB6xregllJRldRyHQZLF8eLFfau4ai0lM5g5W76WC7dOAS0AsGHqoQCGNtVSeBP4z~D0JH9NGlUZ8ytmcEj9XeFtScXdgQpZa0SmL-N8JNwtFsEK80TqNewuIE5llZtRMoKxE5vTlQmBakEfjDm-aw9nPvJSA48P4K7ozbDoV~RJ~aYKOwmiyR4i6I4tjaslWJFnj28LfokZZV5tlrKyWPv4dU4d0hOsVN-VZJJcjaOrYZX52zclz5ZfzngSsod2gMuAV96RzbTDeU8SuLXDpAzXqY93OA__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA" alt="圖形gydF4y2Ba" data-path-from-xml="amjepidkwj317fx1_ht.jpeg"></td> <td char=".">−89.43</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">−81.52</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">−143.29</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>BIC<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN3"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN3" data-open="TBLFN3" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">*</一個></td> <td char=".">186.39</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">208.21</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">294.11</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>BIC的差異<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN4"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN4" data-open="TBLFN4" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">__</一個></td> <td char=".">0</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">21.82</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">107.72</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>基本的繁殖數量<gydF4y2Baem>R</gydF4y2Baem><sub>0</gydF4y2Basub></td> <td char=".">7.68</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">3.83</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">10.99</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>95%可信區間<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN3"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN3" data-open="TBLFN3" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">*</一個> <hr></td> <td char=".">6.96,8.45<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">3.11,4.74<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">9.66,12.82<hgydF4y2Bar></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="table-wrap-foot"> <span id="fn-TBLFN3"></span> <div content-id="TBLFN3" class="footnote"> <span class="fn"><span class="label fn-label"><span rel="nofollow" data-fn-id="TBLFN3" class="end-note-link">*</gydF4y2Baspan></span><p class="chapter-para">BIC,貝葉斯信息準則;CI,置信區間。</gydF4y2Bap></span> </div> <span id="fn-TBLFN4"></span> <div content-id="TBLFN4" class="footnote"> <span class="fn"><span class="label fn-label"><span rel="nofollow" data-fn-id="TBLFN4" class="end-note-link">__</gydF4y2Baspan></span><p class="chapter-para">BIC差5和10表明強有力的證據;差異大於10表明決定性的證據支持這個假設BIC最低的價值。這裏,社會接觸假說表明決定性的證據的值超過其他兩個傳輸假設。</gydF4y2Bap></span> </div> </div> <div class=" graphic-wrap "> <a class="fig-view-orig at-tableViewLarge openInAnotherWindow btn js-view-large" target="_blank" href="//www.delf06.com/view-large/1400371">打開新標簽</一個> </div> </div> </div> <p class="chapter-para">血清學的亞洲流感數據顯示,感染攻擊率最高的年齡10 - 20年。這些數據提供強大的經驗證據對比例混合假說和支持社會接觸假說比均勻混合假設(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-FIG2"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="FIG2" data-open="FIG2" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">圖2</一個>,<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBL3"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBL3" data-open="TBL3" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">表3</一個>)。亞洲流感的傳染性估計<gydF4y2Baem>問</gydF4y2Baem>= 0.036(95%置信區間CI: 0.033, 0.041)。結果估計亞洲流感的基本繁殖數為1.73 (95% CI: 1.57, 1.95)。這個估計是接近1.68(2)的最近發表的價值。</gydF4y2Bap> <a id="1400373" scrollto-destination="1400373"></a> <div data-id="fig2" data-content-id="fig2" class="fig fig-section js-fig-section" swap-content-for-modal="true"> <div class="label fig-label"> <strong>圖2。</gydF4y2Bastrong> </div> <div class="graphic-wrap"> <img class="content-image" src="https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/aje/164/10/10.1093/aje/kwj317/2/m_amjepidkwj317f02_lw.jpeg?Expires=1689125639&Signature=aLTjIV5uib~-rBBO8G67nzDl12e0SDxuAItha~wKOPIq5dkixwQuHthT3B3nhG~Gp5i6AB0JdWiZvIcsXDrYI1gei8riUe~IleH9NQl2UuPy9ft6FcWIXQ05cVSru~6BaOAp1SKYeTkea6C1ScX~yFahMnBA8HnMU6HP2FNBv7vYImy~7JNyL22aztCZpDmfCTiQhfSYxXzrVc~S9K4XL2PERieKHbvjJ7h7QhCHGfrUGUjCT6vna5OlINOgCFwUweDvdu20ix-PcC9C0-ycbx5RsMclu~ZxmuVPqcSAYZw8shIkmeZazErbxn2VUpLvQsVHX93-wg2LCXWqcjEc8A__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA" alt="特異性免疫大流行性流感感染的第一波後,克利夫蘭,俄亥俄州1957。引導標記表明觀察,和酒吧代表95%置信區間。線表示合適的假設自我報告的社會交往(實線),按比例混合(long-dashed線),均勻混合(short-dashed線)。gydF4y2Ba" data-path-from-xml="amjepidkwj317f02_lw.jpeg"> <div class="fig-orig original-slide"> <a class="fig-view-orig js-view-large at-figureViewLarge openInAnotherWindow" href="//www.delf06.com/view-large/figure/1400373/amjepidkwj317f02_lw.jpeg" data-path-from-xml="amjepidkwj317f02_lw.jpeg" target="_blank">打開新標簽</一個> <a data-section="1400373" href="//www.delf06.com/DownloadFile/DownloadImage.aspx?image=https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/aje/164/10/10.1093/aje/kwj317/2/amjepidkwj317f02_lw.jpeg?Expires=1689125639&Signature=N38aiLe3g8EeQFRTH1pj5XiP45zdLwWC2xMRR1z6ZIv-LHjDL1vVR4DBuvSM1Ek3VgAzBHyfI9ZGgFKBG4jn4~WckPUw6JSo6aBERCNFGUnhPptxRsm0wq0FfeZC66KCwrc~Kf2jCpo41HxOQ3rlg8SMjT2uKTJf8B1KE4G6HMHh7EO9BcRGPhl6PjkFK7MD~Yz1d7th7nooi6hmd-ErFGSi89UrWB6wVf~VNlD0O8AULAmITufV846QTe24sLw1T~yFS6bTqwgz7YvBf0NEYSZOsPuZa3hwenpYSDbuDUKJhQPT~uwzuGX1TCtQvklUpjDz-~zRonWE4S0wyxJ4Bw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA&sec=1400373&ar=162511&xsltPath=~/UI/app/XSLT&imagename=&siteId=5257" class="download-slide" data-path-from-xml="amjepidkwj317f02_lw.jpeg">下載幻燈片</一個> </div> </div> <div class="caption fig-caption"> <p class="chapter-para">特異性免疫大流行性流感感染的第一波後,克利夫蘭,俄亥俄州1957。引導標記表明觀察,和酒吧代表95%置信區間。線表示合適的假設自我報告的社會交往(實線),按比例混合(long-dashed線),均勻混合(short-dashed線)。</gydF4y2Bap> </div> </div> <a id="1400374" scrollto-destination="1400374"></a> <div content-id="TBL3" class="table-modal table-full-width-wrap"> <div class="table-wrap table-wide"> <div class="table-wrap-title" id="TBL3" data-id="TBL3"> <span class="label"><strong>表3。</gydF4y2Bastrong></span> <div class="caption"> <p class="chapter-para"><strong>傳播結果測試假說對血清學的數據大流行性流感“亞洲”,克利夫蘭,俄亥俄州1957</gydF4y2Bastrong></p> </div> </div> <div class="table-overflow"> <table role="table"> <thead> <tr> <th> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="3"> <hr>傳播的假設<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> <tr> <th> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>社會接觸<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>按比例混合<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>均勻的混合<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>不。的自由參數</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">3</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>最大化對數似<我米gclass="contentFigures" src="https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/aje/164/10/10.1093/aje/kwj317/2/m_amjepidkwj317fx1_ht.jpeg?Expires=1689125639&Signature=rqpMneT1-Xo3naU2cSVQakakWPCPOs-GgqMhWtaXP2fsHmk9FedMoOD~ZB6xregllJRldRyHQZLF8eLFfau4ai0lM5g5W76WC7dOAS0AsGHqoQCGNtVSeBP4z~D0JH9NGlUZ8ytmcEj9XeFtScXdgQpZa0SmL-N8JNwtFsEK80TqNewuIE5llZtRMoKxE5vTlQmBakEfjDm-aw9nPvJSA48P4K7ozbDoV~RJ~aYKOwmiyR4i6I4tjaslWJFnj28LfokZZV5tlrKyWPv4dU4d0hOsVN-VZJJcjaOrYZX52zclz5ZfzngSsod2gMuAV96RzbTDeU8SuLXDpAzXqY93OA__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA" alt="圖形gydF4y2Ba" data-path-from-xml="amjepidkwj317fx1_ht.jpeg"></td> <td char=".">−27.69</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">−27.57</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">−28.51</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>BIC<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN5"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN5" data-open="TBLFN5" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">*</一個></td> <td char=".">60.23</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">69.69</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">61.88</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>BIC的差異<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN6"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN6" data-open="TBLFN6" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">__</一個></td> <td char=".">0</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">9.46</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1.65</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>基本的繁殖數量<gydF4y2Baem>R</gydF4y2Baem><sub>0</gydF4y2Basub></td> <td char=".">1.73</tgydF4y2Bad> <td></td> <td char=".">1.71</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>95%可信區間<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN5"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN5" data-open="TBLFN5" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">*</一個> <hr></td> <td char=".">1.57,1.95<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td> <hr></td> <td char=".">1.56,1.92<hgydF4y2Bar></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="table-modal"> <table> <thead> <tr> <th> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="3"> <hr>傳播的假設<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> <tr> <th> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>社會接觸<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>按比例混合<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>均勻的混合<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>不。的自由參數</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">3</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>最大化對數似<我米gclass="contentFigures" src="https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/aje/164/10/10.1093/aje/kwj317/2/m_amjepidkwj317fx1_ht.jpeg?Expires=1689125639&Signature=rqpMneT1-Xo3naU2cSVQakakWPCPOs-GgqMhWtaXP2fsHmk9FedMoOD~ZB6xregllJRldRyHQZLF8eLFfau4ai0lM5g5W76WC7dOAS0AsGHqoQCGNtVSeBP4z~D0JH9NGlUZ8ytmcEj9XeFtScXdgQpZa0SmL-N8JNwtFsEK80TqNewuIE5llZtRMoKxE5vTlQmBakEfjDm-aw9nPvJSA48P4K7ozbDoV~RJ~aYKOwmiyR4i6I4tjaslWJFnj28LfokZZV5tlrKyWPv4dU4d0hOsVN-VZJJcjaOrYZX52zclz5ZfzngSsod2gMuAV96RzbTDeU8SuLXDpAzXqY93OA__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA" alt="圖形gydF4y2Ba" data-path-from-xml="amjepidkwj317fx1_ht.jpeg"></td> <td char=".">−27.69</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">−27.57</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">−28.51</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>BIC<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN5"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN5" data-open="TBLFN5" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">*</一個></td> <td char=".">60.23</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">69.69</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">61.88</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>BIC的差異<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN6"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN6" data-open="TBLFN6" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">__</一個></td> <td char=".">0</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">9.46</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1.65</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>基本的繁殖數量<gydF4y2Baem>R</gydF4y2Baem><sub>0</gydF4y2Basub></td> <td char=".">1.73</tgydF4y2Bad> <td></td> <td char=".">1.71</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>95%可信區間<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN5"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN5" data-open="TBLFN5" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">*</一個> <hr></td> <td char=".">1.57,1.95<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td> <hr></td> <td char=".">1.56,1.92<hgydF4y2Bar></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="table-wrap-foot"> <span id="fn-TBLFN5"></span> <div content-id="TBLFN5" class="footnote"> <span class="fn"><span class="label fn-label"><span rel="nofollow" data-fn-id="TBLFN5" class="end-note-link">*</gydF4y2Baspan></span><p class="chapter-para">BIC,貝葉斯信息準則;CI,置信區間。</gydF4y2Bap></span> </div> <span id="fn-TBLFN6"></span> <div content-id="TBLFN6" class="footnote"> <span class="fn"><span class="label fn-label"><span rel="nofollow" data-fn-id="TBLFN6" class="end-note-link">__</gydF4y2Baspan></span><p class="chapter-para">BIC差5和10表明強有力的證據;差異大於10表明決定性的證據支持這個假設BIC最低的價值。這裏的值表明強有力的證據為社會接觸假說在比例混合假設。</gydF4y2Bap></span> </div> </div> <div class=" graphic-wrap "> <a class="fig-view-orig at-tableViewLarge openInAnotherWindow btn js-view-large" target="_blank" href="//www.delf06.com/view-large/1400374">打開新標簽</一個> </div> </div> </div> <div class="table-full-width-wrap"> <div class="table-wrap table-wide"> <div class="table-wrap-title" id="TBL3" data-id="TBL3"> <span class="label"><strong>表3。</gydF4y2Bastrong></span> <div class="caption"> <p class="chapter-para"><strong>傳播結果測試假說對血清學的數據大流行性流感“亞洲”,克利夫蘭,俄亥俄州1957</gydF4y2Bastrong></p> </div> </div> <div class="table-overflow"> <table role="table"> <thead> <tr> <th> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="3"> <hr>傳播的假設<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> <tr> <th> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>社會接觸<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>按比例混合<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>均勻的混合<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>不。的自由參數</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">3</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>最大化對數似<我米gclass="contentFigures" src="https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/aje/164/10/10.1093/aje/kwj317/2/m_amjepidkwj317fx1_ht.jpeg?Expires=1689125639&Signature=rqpMneT1-Xo3naU2cSVQakakWPCPOs-GgqMhWtaXP2fsHmk9FedMoOD~ZB6xregllJRldRyHQZLF8eLFfau4ai0lM5g5W76WC7dOAS0AsGHqoQCGNtVSeBP4z~D0JH9NGlUZ8ytmcEj9XeFtScXdgQpZa0SmL-N8JNwtFsEK80TqNewuIE5llZtRMoKxE5vTlQmBakEfjDm-aw9nPvJSA48P4K7ozbDoV~RJ~aYKOwmiyR4i6I4tjaslWJFnj28LfokZZV5tlrKyWPv4dU4d0hOsVN-VZJJcjaOrYZX52zclz5ZfzngSsod2gMuAV96RzbTDeU8SuLXDpAzXqY93OA__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA" alt="圖形gydF4y2Ba" data-path-from-xml="amjepidkwj317fx1_ht.jpeg"></td> <td char=".">−27.69</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">−27.57</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">−28.51</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>BIC<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN5"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN5" data-open="TBLFN5" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">*</一個></td> <td char=".">60.23</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">69.69</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">61.88</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>BIC的差異<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN6"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN6" data-open="TBLFN6" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">__</一個></td> <td char=".">0</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">9.46</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1.65</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>基本的繁殖數量<gydF4y2Baem>R</gydF4y2Baem><sub>0</gydF4y2Basub></td> <td char=".">1.73</tgydF4y2Bad> <td></td> <td char=".">1.71</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>95%可信區間<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN5"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN5" data-open="TBLFN5" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">*</一個> <hr></td> <td char=".">1.57,1.95<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td> <hr></td> <td char=".">1.56,1.92<hgydF4y2Bar></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="table-modal"> <table> <thead> <tr> <th> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="3"> <hr>傳播的假設<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> <tr> <th> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>社會接觸<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>按比例混合<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>均勻的混合<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>不。的自由參數</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">3</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>最大化對數似<我米gclass="contentFigures" src="https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/aje/164/10/10.1093/aje/kwj317/2/m_amjepidkwj317fx1_ht.jpeg?Expires=1689125639&Signature=rqpMneT1-Xo3naU2cSVQakakWPCPOs-GgqMhWtaXP2fsHmk9FedMoOD~ZB6xregllJRldRyHQZLF8eLFfau4ai0lM5g5W76WC7dOAS0AsGHqoQCGNtVSeBP4z~D0JH9NGlUZ8ytmcEj9XeFtScXdgQpZa0SmL-N8JNwtFsEK80TqNewuIE5llZtRMoKxE5vTlQmBakEfjDm-aw9nPvJSA48P4K7ozbDoV~RJ~aYKOwmiyR4i6I4tjaslWJFnj28LfokZZV5tlrKyWPv4dU4d0hOsVN-VZJJcjaOrYZX52zclz5ZfzngSsod2gMuAV96RzbTDeU8SuLXDpAzXqY93OA__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA" alt="圖形gydF4y2Ba" data-path-from-xml="amjepidkwj317fx1_ht.jpeg"></td> <td char=".">−27.69</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">−27.57</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">−28.51</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>BIC<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN5"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN5" data-open="TBLFN5" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">*</一個></td> <td char=".">60.23</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">69.69</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">61.88</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>BIC的差異<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN6"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN6" data-open="TBLFN6" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">__</一個></td> <td char=".">0</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">9.46</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1.65</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>基本的繁殖數量<gydF4y2Baem>R</gydF4y2Baem><sub>0</gydF4y2Basub></td> <td char=".">1.73</tgydF4y2Bad> <td></td> <td char=".">1.71</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>95%可信區間<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN5"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN5" data-open="TBLFN5" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">*</一個> <hr></td> <td char=".">1.57,1.95<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td> <hr></td> <td char=".">1.56,1.92<hgydF4y2Bar></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="table-wrap-foot"> <span id="fn-TBLFN5"></span> <div content-id="TBLFN5" class="footnote"> <span class="fn"><span class="label fn-label"><span rel="nofollow" data-fn-id="TBLFN5" class="end-note-link">*</gydF4y2Baspan></span><p class="chapter-para">BIC,貝葉斯信息準則;CI,置信區間。</gydF4y2Bap></span> </div> <span id="fn-TBLFN6"></span> <div content-id="TBLFN6" class="footnote"> <span class="fn"><span class="label fn-label"><span rel="nofollow" data-fn-id="TBLFN6" class="end-note-link">__</gydF4y2Baspan></span><p class="chapter-para">BIC差5和10表明強有力的證據;差異大於10表明決定性的證據支持這個假設BIC最低的價值。這裏的值表明強有力的證據為社會接觸假說在比例混合假設。</gydF4y2Bap></span> </div> </div> <div class=" graphic-wrap "> <a class="fig-view-orig at-tableViewLarge openInAnotherWindow btn js-view-large" target="_blank" href="//www.delf06.com/view-large/1400374">打開新標簽</一個> </div> </div> </div> <h3 scrollto-destination="1400375" id="1400375" class="section-title js-splitscreen-section-title">最初的流行病的傳播在一個完全易感人群</h3gydF4y2Ba> <p class="chapter-para">respiratory-spread流行的模擬表明,在初始階段,發病率最高的類,23歲。無論索引病例的年齡和傳染性參數的值<gydF4y2Baem>問</gydF4y2Baem>後,各年齡段發病率收斂於相同的排名隻有五代的感染。無論傳染性參數的值<gydF4y2Baem>問</gydF4y2Baem>,免疫一個個人從類13 - 19歲的結果減少新感染的人數比免疫一個人從其他年齡階層。從這個意義上說,類13 - 19歲最有助於進一步傳播的感染。</gydF4y2Bap> <h2 scrollto-destination="1400377" id="1400377" class="section-title js-splitscreen-section-title">討論</h2gydF4y2Ba> <p class="chapter-para">在這篇文章中,我們已經確定了一個特定社會接觸模式和探索respiratory-spread代理的估計傳輸參數的相關性。我們發現數學傳播模型,使用基於社會接觸傳輸參數能更好地捕捉觀察到的特定感染腮腺炎和大流行性流感的模式比類似的模型,使用基於齊次混合或混合比例的傳輸參數。</gydF4y2Bap> <p class="chapter-para">觀察到的社會交往模式揭示了一個偏愛聯係其他年齡相仿的人。這是在協議與接觸模式中觀察到的小便利樣本(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB16"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB16" data-open="BIB16" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">16</一個>,<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB18"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB18" data-open="BIB18" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">18</一個>與模擬接觸模式)和基於交通數據(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB15"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB15" data-open="BIB15" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">15</一個>)。不同年齡階層集體同意他們之間發生聯係的數量。這種一致性可能是奇怪的,因為自我報告召回社會行為往往是不準確的(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB28"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB28" data-open="BIB28" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">28</一個>)。然而,盡管個人並不擅長記憶和報告他們的特定的社會互動,個人平均似乎知道一些廣泛的關於社會互動的事實在人群(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB29"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB29" data-open="BIB29" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">29日</一個>)。然而,自我報告的質量信息可以在將來的研究中進一步完善了通過使用一個前瞻性研究設計和給一個明確的一個等價的定義適用於接觸嬰兒的對話。</gydF4y2Bap> <p class="chapter-para">學齡兒童和年輕人報道最高的許多不同的對話夥伴。仿真研究表明這一發現的流行病學意義:在完全易感人群疫情期間,學齡兒童和年輕人將經曆感染的發病率最高,最有助於未來傳播的感染。有分散的流行病學證據支持這個建議在respiratory-spread代理的傳播作用。麻疹疫情發生在易感人群在偏遠地區,如格陵蘭或設德蘭群島(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB30"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB30" data-open="BIB30" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">30.</一個>),流感大流行發生在不同的人群,如冰島(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB31"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB31" data-open="BIB31" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">31日</一個>)和日本(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB32"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB32" data-open="BIB32" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">32</一個>)顯示一個峰值在感染的發病率大約15歲年。</gydF4y2Bap> <p class="chapter-para">估計接觸模式的模擬表明,在初始階段的流行respiratory-spread代理在易感人群,各年齡段發病率迅速收斂(幾代感染),一個典型的模式,用類13 - 19歲發病率最高。流行病學推論是,在流行病的初始階段,我們已經可以看到觀察不同年齡組發病率是否符合預測得到的自我報告的社會聯係。如果觀察同意預言,我們可以更有信心使用傳輸模型依賴於估計接觸模式探索替代幹預策略的有效性。模擬表明,針對學齡兒童和年輕人是高度有效的減少進一步傳播,無論傳染性的疾病。</gydF4y2Bap> <p class="chapter-para">我們的研究提供了一個直接聯係對各年齡段人的社會行為的不同年齡類和觀察到的特定年齡段的感染風險。這樣一個連接方便的應用數學respiratory-spread傳染病傳播模型。此外,觀察到的社會接觸行為可以特別有用在規劃幹預其他知之甚少感染除了其主要傳播途徑。這樣的計劃將是至關重要的,如果一個新的大流行性流感亞型,如果天花或肺鼠疫是重新引入,或者任何新的呼吸代理開始在人與人之間傳播。</gydF4y2Bap> <h2 scrollto-destination="1400383" id="1400383" class="section-title js-splitscreen-section-title" data-legacy-id="APP1">附錄</h2gydF4y2Ba> <h3 scrollto-destination="1400384" id="1400384" class="section-title js-splitscreen-section-title">社會接觸矩陣對數似函數<gydF4y2Bastrong>米</gydF4y2Bastrong></h3> <p class="chapter-para">我們使用負二項分布來描述自我的對話夥伴年齡班遇到了一個典型的一周<gydF4y2Baem>我</gydF4y2Baem>參與者的年齡階級<gydF4y2Baem>j</gydF4y2Baem>。這個分布的均值<gydF4y2Baem>米</gydF4y2Baem><sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub>和方差<gydF4y2Baem>米</gydF4y2Baem><sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub>+<gydF4y2Baspan class="inline-formula no-formula-id"></span></p> <div class="tex-math display-math"> \ (m_ {ij} ^ {2} \)</gydF4y2Badiv>/<gydF4y2Baem>k</gydF4y2Baem> <sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub>。<gydF4y2Bap></p> <div class=" block-child-p "> 負二項對數似函數<gydF4y2Baem>米</gydF4y2Baem> <sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub>和<gydF4y2Baem>k</gydF4y2Baem> <sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub>,沒有修正互惠的聯係,<gydF4y2Badiv class="formula-wrap"> <div class="disp-formula" id="FDA1" content-id="FDA1"> <div class="fig-graphic"> <div class="jumplink-placeholder" id="amjepidkwj317fx2_ht.jpeg"> <img class="contentFigures" src="https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/aje/164/10/10.1093/aje/kwj317/2/m_amjepidkwj317fx2_ht.jpeg?Expires=1689125639&Signature=eNdi~Q5HjIyDwnj1frOAteSzUtSNLpXdILEdBzhKY7b~qzNhj5B~fmepEtOkpEapk68IugOXbwTAKYo4lWMxpbpRPRmuxTJNgg6rgfft7VIfm7JCUgeBRyZH7O7bMkvyT0buEaxFAraQ2G9D90RLuuybhs1~VbMWnUQZrtGGbBdTYnMxevjwHrHoAZjQUHWIKTa8C9fN8AeN16byaAf8X0~IpxBhP7k0fYlD2~SZXisBHFxjUGhJFDzNHmhXMJduAtk~NA3JFS6n7fYRVsjNeLFWOW-J5fjLq-5ZZCZ7j73X0FbLyuuLyfoxDBXs7y7n7SFmpBBqHmFuh8EeAd5bqQ__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA" alt="公式gydF4y2Ba" data-path-from-xml="amjepidkwj317fx2_ht.jpeg"> </div> </div> </div> </div>和負二項對數似函數<gydF4y2Baem>米</gydF4y2Baem> <sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub>和<gydF4y2Baem>k</gydF4y2Baem> <sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub>,與修正等互惠的聯係<gydF4y2Baem>米</gydF4y2Baem> <sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub> <em>w</gydF4y2Baem> <sub><em>j</gydF4y2Baem></sub>=<gydF4y2Baem>米</gydF4y2Baem> <sub><em>霽</gydF4y2Baem></sub> <em>w</gydF4y2Baem> <sub><em>我</gydF4y2Baem></sub>,是<gydF4y2Badiv class="formula-wrap"> <div class="disp-formula" id="FDA2" content-id="FDA2"> <div class="fig-graphic"> <div class="jumplink-placeholder" id="amjepidkwj317fx3_ht.jpeg"> <img class="contentFigures" src="https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/aje/164/10/10.1093/aje/kwj317/2/m_amjepidkwj317fx3_ht.jpeg?Expires=1689125639&Signature=fKrUBqmJb66iS3G83KzC4U~~55Wpvtspgj3vHiuY2BwTho7Mn-4CMnJihLWPgJJQQIEc2F9vVfZRP3EljHromxv4GkWlBzOggLN2xcdXTqpMO1IgXhxtnPg-0ETKM0R36nGl4~k~~nlMqYXEjkMVJLuG~PX4Je8vsOeRUhOUpjfQZeId-LIs0U5ls0qd42gM7eLaUWM4I-LW2iYsTMtWLxg1NamkrghMaUvw7BCzyW7CXR2EI81wZuozBaCklV7fvQDtoxFGTPzEA~r7kGhCjwVG~XnQAtATHfltUtw8fyy865gJefGTzof2rPmVpyH8DvpjBdoxdZc0C1VMqX5miQ__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA" alt="公式gydF4y2Ba" data-path-from-xml="amjepidkwj317fx3_ht.jpeg"> </div> </div> </div> </div>在這裏,<gydF4y2Bastrong>x</gydF4y2Bastrong> <sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub>是向量的數字時代班上的談話夥伴<gydF4y2Baem>我</gydF4y2Baem>報告的參與者的年齡階級<gydF4y2Baem>j</gydF4y2Baem>,<gydF4y2Baem>T</gydF4y2Baem> <sub><em>j</gydF4y2Baem></sub>參與者的年齡階級的數量嗎<gydF4y2Baem>j</gydF4y2Baem>,<gydF4y2Baem>t</gydF4y2Baem>是一個指數。年齡的人口大小類<gydF4y2Baem>w</gydF4y2Baem> <sub><em>我</gydF4y2Baem></sub>反映在1986年荷蘭人口的年齡分布(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB33"></span> <a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB33" data-open="BIB33" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">33</一個>)(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLA1"></span> <a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLA1" data-open="TBLA1" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">附錄表1</一個>)。</gydF4y2Badiv> <a id="1400387" scrollto-destination="1400387"></a> <div content-id="TBLA1" class="table-modal table-full-width-wrap"> <div class="table-wrap table-wide"> <div class="table-wrap-title" id="TBLA1" data-id="TBLA1"> <span class="label"><strong>附錄表1。</gydF4y2Bastrong></span> <div class="caption"> <p class="chapter-para"><strong>據調查參與者年齡分布的數字社會接觸,烏特勒支,荷蘭,1986年<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN7"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN7" data-open="TBLFN7" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">*</一個></strong></p> </div> </div> <div class="table-overflow"> <table role="table"> <thead> <tr> <th> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="7"> <hr>年齡類(年)<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th rowspan="2"> <hr>總<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> <tr> <th> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>0<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>1 - 5<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>6 - 12<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>13 - 19<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>熱帶病<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>40歲至59歲<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>≥60<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>不。的參與者</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">0</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">125年</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">154年</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">152年</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">681年</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">360年</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">341年</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1813年</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>荷蘭人口(×1000)<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">184年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">876年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">1265年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">1642年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">4857年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">3312年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">2477年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">14614年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="table-modal"> <table> <thead> <tr> <th> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="7"> <hr>年齡類(年)<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th rowspan="2"> <hr>總<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> <tr> <th> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>0<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>1 - 5<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>6 - 12<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>13 - 19<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>熱帶病<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>40歲至59歲<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>≥60<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>不。的參與者</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">0</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">125年</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">154年</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">152年</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">681年</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">360年</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">341年</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1813年</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>荷蘭人口(×1000)<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">184年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">876年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">1265年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">1642年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">4857年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">3312年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">2477年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">14614年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="table-wrap-foot"> <span id="fn-TBLFN7"></span> <div content-id="TBLFN7" class="footnote"> <span class="fn"><span class="label fn-label"><span rel="nofollow" data-fn-id="TBLFN7" class="end-note-link">*</gydF4y2Baspan></span><p class="chapter-para">預計1月1日荷蘭人口的年齡分布比較給出了1987年,(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB33"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB33" data-open="BIB33" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">33</一個>)。</gydF4y2Bap></span> </div> </div> <div class=" graphic-wrap "> <a class="fig-view-orig at-tableViewLarge openInAnotherWindow btn js-view-large" target="_blank" href="//www.delf06.com/view-large/1400387">打開新標簽</一個> </div> </div> </div> <div class="table-full-width-wrap"> <div class="table-wrap table-wide"> <div class="table-wrap-title" id="TBLA1" data-id="TBLA1"> <span class="label"><strong>附錄表1。</gydF4y2Bastrong></span> <div class="caption"> <p class="chapter-para"><strong>據調查參與者年齡分布的數字社會接觸,烏特勒支,荷蘭,1986年<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN7"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN7" data-open="TBLFN7" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">*</一個></strong></p> </div> </div> <div class="table-overflow"> <table role="table"> <thead> <tr> <th> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="7"> <hr>年齡類(年)<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th rowspan="2"> <hr>總<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> <tr> <th> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>0<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>1 - 5<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>6 - 12<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>13 - 19<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>熱帶病<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>40歲至59歲<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>≥60<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>不。的參與者</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">0</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">125年</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">154年</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">152年</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">681年</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">360年</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">341年</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1813年</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>荷蘭人口(×1000)<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">184年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">876年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">1265年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">1642年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">4857年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">3312年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">2477年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">14614年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="table-modal"> <table> <thead> <tr> <th> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="7"> <hr>年齡類(年)<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th rowspan="2"> <hr>總<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> <tr> <th> <hr><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>0<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>1 - 5<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>6 - 12<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>13 - 19<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>熱帶病<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>40歲至59歲<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>≥60<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>不。的參與者</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">0</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">125年</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">154年</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">152年</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">681年</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">360年</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">341年</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">1813年</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>荷蘭人口(×1000)<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">184年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">876年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">1265年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">1642年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">4857年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">3312年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">2477年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">14614年<hgydF4y2Bar></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="table-wrap-foot"> <span id="fn-TBLFN7"></span> <div content-id="TBLFN7" class="footnote"> <span class="fn"><span class="label fn-label"><span rel="nofollow" data-fn-id="TBLFN7" class="end-note-link">*</gydF4y2Baspan></span><p class="chapter-para">預計1月1日荷蘭人口的年齡分布比較給出了1987年,(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB33"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB33" data-open="BIB33" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">33</一個>)。</gydF4y2Bap></span> </div> </div> <div class=" graphic-wrap "> <a class="fig-view-orig at-tableViewLarge openInAnotherWindow btn js-view-large" target="_blank" href="//www.delf06.com/view-large/1400387">打開新標簽</一個> </div> </div> </div> <h3 scrollto-destination="1400388" id="1400388" class="section-title js-splitscreen-section-title">選擇性報告和選擇性參與</h3gydF4y2Ba> <p class="chapter-para">最大的互惠校正是觀察類13 - 19歲之間的聯係和熱帶病年(比較<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLA1"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLA1" data-open="TBLA1" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">附錄表1</一個>與<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-FIG3"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="FIG3" data-open="FIG3" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">附錄圖1</一個>)。各年齡段人口大小我們說明這個<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLA1"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLA1" data-open="TBLA1" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">附錄表1</一個>和報道數量的聯係人<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-FIG3"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="FIG3" data-open="FIG3" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">附錄圖1</一個>:類13 - 19歲聲稱有18899420會話交流類熱帶病歲(1642000×11.51 = 18899420);類熱帶病歲聲稱有32590470會話類13 - 19歲之間的聯係(4857000×6.71 = 32590470)。這種差異是暗示報告偏差(例如,年輕人接觸青少年高估他們的數量)或參與偏差(例如,年輕成年人與青少年交談更容易參與)。</gydF4y2Bap> <a id="1400390" scrollto-destination="1400390"></a> <div data-id="fig3" data-content-id="fig3" class="fig fig-section js-fig-section" swap-content-for-modal="true"> <div class="label fig-label"> <strong>附錄圖1。</gydF4y2Bastrong> </div> <div class="graphic-wrap"> <img class="content-image" src="https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/aje/164/10/10.1093/aje/kwj317/2/m_amjepidkwj317a01_ht.jpeg?Expires=1689125639&Signature=fcloDwj7U3XlYnrPNs~5NgqhAdaMEhXExmH7UaQLYx6maUlRsRHsoJiycMegIUkkdcd4aZ1TqkYE4vKqBhI9mB6NRh3A1RZDoKcA~vlbuyH50DL4b8hnmlEC5H7dyxLyBwyd1OW0j-wFctYt-Kt78j5vrfXXl-JZlxX3Gk5WLyIxTN7QYI6wnJywr1e0sEcvpe-g2JEbXNPIa0hv6cC9Q4ScEZXOZtDvH5yazGVFDBYonwXG4SLc3ZFmll2gggIgXaJxGdCzhFkZN6lqXvC0m5lcy4mLsp6ga~I8veTq31Ve48~IJdDrACVq~n3CG2P9DmEgkxjgWrrnLFYwe0KJ5A__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA" alt="數字的相對頻率不同的談話夥伴遇到一個典型的一周,從自我報告的數據估計,沒有修正互惠,烏特勒支,荷蘭,1986年。數據由年齡分層類的參與者(水平)和他們的聯係人(垂直)。上麵的數字每個直方圖顯示中值,沒有互惠校正。gydF4y2Ba" data-path-from-xml="amjepidkwj317a01_ht.jpeg"> <div class="fig-orig original-slide"> <a class="fig-view-orig js-view-large at-figureViewLarge openInAnotherWindow" href="//www.delf06.com/view-large/figure/1400390/amjepidkwj317a01_ht.jpeg" data-path-from-xml="amjepidkwj317a01_ht.jpeg" target="_blank">打開新標簽</一個> <a data-section="1400390" href="//www.delf06.com/DownloadFile/DownloadImage.aspx?image=https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/aje/164/10/10.1093/aje/kwj317/2/amjepidkwj317a01_ht.jpeg?Expires=1689125639&Signature=mymAAyMsX987I9Gm1LoH0xSgIYH3Lhun-6WR0UFU~qqb-DQJU4~1N~WHNVOf6yfUlGe0tWXvWLcNgeQL6qPZs4bFB-4Pz6J8EYf4IUlSy2SxIAbTEj2zz1bDhzOt4-w1EFwGXB~j0uLiBOBDcR7TU066ILviXaHU3Z-ptB1FtEpMO~1XPliXoSmXnhUh01VCltoIgdVGdwhBSnLJ7qyotNDtixItcalHea0cFnxuDqTUUCIaffcWm5QLbkicc0pTJxZtpiFCY2BE8I3RuwbUaW3tWuOTlPCnKuYhc2w3BZRI0tGPsofMKAvOS2Ic6FpwW7~yl9PeN232CE8anECMhQ__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA&sec=1400390&ar=162511&xsltPath=~/UI/app/XSLT&imagename=&siteId=5257" class="download-slide" data-path-from-xml="amjepidkwj317a01_ht.jpeg">下載幻燈片</一個> </div> </div> <div class="caption fig-caption"> <p class="chapter-para">數字的相對頻率不同的談話夥伴遇到一個典型的一周,從自我報告的數據估計,沒有修正互惠,烏特勒支,荷蘭,1986年。數據由年齡分層類的參與者(水平)和他們的聯係人(垂直)。上麵的數字每個直方圖顯示中值,沒有互惠校正。</gydF4y2Bap> </div> </div> <h3 scrollto-destination="1400391" id="1400391" class="section-title js-splitscreen-section-title">關係傳播率</h3gydF4y2Ba> <div class=" block-child-p "> 接觸年齡各年齡段的接觸有關<gydF4y2Baem>c</gydF4y2Baem> <sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub>=<gydF4y2Baem>米</gydF4y2Baem> <sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub> <em>w</gydF4y2Baem> <sub>合計</gydF4y2Basub>/<gydF4y2Baem>w</gydF4y2Baem> <sub><em>我</gydF4y2Baem></sub>,在那裏<gydF4y2Baspan class="inline-formula no-formula-id"> <div class="tex-math display-math"> \ (w_ {\ mathrm{合計}}{=}{\總和}_ {{=}1}^ {6}w_{我}\)。</gydF4y2Badiv></span> <span class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLA2"></span> <a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLA2" data-open="TBLA2" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">附錄表2</一個>出對應的接觸率的估計數量每周接觸了(參見文本<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBL1"></span> <a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBL1" data-open="TBL1" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">表1</一個>);這些值可以轉換為不同年齡組傳播率β<gydF4y2Basub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub>:<gydF4y2Badiv class="formula-wrap"> <div class="disp-formula" id="FDA3" content-id="FDA3"> <div class="tex-math display-math"> \ [\ mathrm{{\β}}_ {ij}{=}問{\,}c_ {ij} / w_ {\ mathrm{合計}}。\]</gydF4y2Badiv> </div> </div> </div> <a id="1400393" scrollto-destination="1400393"></a> <div content-id="TBLA2" class="table-modal table-full-width-wrap"> <div class="table-wrap table-wide"> <div class="table-wrap-title" id="TBLA2" data-id="TBLA2"> <span class="label"><strong>附錄表2。</gydF4y2Bastrong></span> <div class="caption"> <p class="chapter-para"><strong>歸一化接觸年齡<gydF4y2Baem>c</gydF4y2Baem><sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub>作為一個典型的一周,從自我報告數據估計互惠校正後,烏特勒支,荷蘭,1986年<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN8"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN8" data-open="TBLFN8" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">*</一個></strong></p> </div> </div> <div class="table-overflow"> <table role="table"> <thead> <tr> <th rowspan="2"> <hr>年齡類(年)的聯係<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="6"> <hr>年齡班(年)的參與者<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> <tr> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>1 - 5<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>6 - 12<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>13 - 19<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>熱帶病<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>40歲至59歲<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>≥60<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>0 - 5</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">169.14</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">31.47</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">17.76</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">34.50</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">15.83</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">11.47</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>6 - 12</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">31.47</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">274.51</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">32.31</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">34.86</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">20.61</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">11.50</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>13 - 19</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">17.76</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">32.31</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">224.25</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">50.75</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">37.52</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">14.96</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>熱帶病</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">34.50</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">34.86</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">50.75</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">75.66</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">49.45</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">25.08</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>40歲至59歲</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">15.83</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">20.61</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">37.52</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">49.45</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">61.26</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">32.99</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>≥60<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">11.47<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">11.50<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">14.96<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">25.08<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">32.99<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">54.23<hgydF4y2Bar></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="table-modal"> <table> <thead> <tr> <th rowspan="2"> <hr>年齡類(年)的聯係<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="6"> <hr>年齡班(年)的參與者<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> <tr> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>1 - 5<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>6 - 12<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>13 - 19<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>熱帶病<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>40歲至59歲<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>≥60<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>0 - 5</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">169.14</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">31.47</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">17.76</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">34.50</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">15.83</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">11.47</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>6 - 12</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">31.47</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">274.51</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">32.31</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">34.86</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">20.61</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">11.50</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>13 - 19</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">17.76</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">32.31</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">224.25</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">50.75</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">37.52</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">14.96</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>熱帶病</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">34.50</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">34.86</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">50.75</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">75.66</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">49.45</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">25.08</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>40歲至59歲</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">15.83</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">20.61</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">37.52</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">49.45</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">61.26</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">32.99</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>≥60<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">11.47<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">11.50<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">14.96<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">25.08<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">32.99<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">54.23<hgydF4y2Bar></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="table-wrap-foot"> <span id="fn-TBLFN8"></span> <div content-id="TBLFN8" class="footnote"> <span class="fn"><span class="label fn-label"><span rel="nofollow" data-fn-id="TBLFN8" class="end-note-link">*</gydF4y2Baspan></span><p class="chapter-para">獲取一個矩陣,並傳播率為一個特定的感染在一個特定的人口,這些條目應該乘以傳染性疾病特性值的參數<gydF4y2Baem>問</gydF4y2Baem>和除以總數量。</gydF4y2Bap></span> </div> </div> <div class=" graphic-wrap "> <a class="fig-view-orig at-tableViewLarge openInAnotherWindow btn js-view-large" target="_blank" href="//www.delf06.com/view-large/1400393">打開新標簽</一個> </div> </div> </div> <div class="table-full-width-wrap"> <div class="table-wrap table-wide"> <div class="table-wrap-title" id="TBLA2" data-id="TBLA2"> <span class="label"><strong>附錄表2。</gydF4y2Bastrong></span> <div class="caption"> <p class="chapter-para"><strong>歸一化接觸年齡<gydF4y2Baem>c</gydF4y2Baem><sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub>作為一個典型的一周,從自我報告數據估計互惠校正後,烏特勒支,荷蘭,1986年<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-TBLFN8"></span><a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="TBLFN8" data-open="TBLFN8" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">*</一個></strong></p> </div> </div> <div class="table-overflow"> <table role="table"> <thead> <tr> <th rowspan="2"> <hr>年齡類(年)的聯係<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="6"> <hr>年齡班(年)的參與者<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> <tr> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>1 - 5<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>6 - 12<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>13 - 19<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>熱帶病<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>40歲至59歲<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>≥60<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>0 - 5</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">169.14</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">31.47</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">17.76</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">34.50</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">15.83</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">11.47</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>6 - 12</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">31.47</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">274.51</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">32.31</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">34.86</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">20.61</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">11.50</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>13 - 19</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">17.76</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">32.31</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">224.25</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">50.75</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">37.52</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">14.96</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>熱帶病</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">34.50</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">34.86</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">50.75</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">75.66</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">49.45</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">25.08</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>40歲至59歲</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">15.83</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">20.61</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">37.52</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">49.45</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">61.26</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">32.99</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>≥60<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">11.47<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">11.50<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">14.96<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">25.08<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">32.99<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">54.23<hgydF4y2Bar></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="table-modal"> <table> <thead> <tr> <th rowspan="2"> <hr>年齡類(年)的聯係<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th colspan="6"> <hr>年齡班(年)的參與者<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> <tr> <th><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>1 - 5<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>6 - 12<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>13 - 19<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>熱帶病<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>40歲至59歲<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> <th>≥60<hgydF4y2Bar><span aria-hidden="true" style="display: none;">。</gydF4y2Baspan></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>0 - 5</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">169.14</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">31.47</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">17.76</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">34.50</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">15.83</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">11.47</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>6 - 12</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">31.47</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">274.51</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">32.31</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">34.86</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">20.61</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">11.50</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>13 - 19</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">17.76</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">32.31</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">224.25</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">50.75</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">37.52</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">14.96</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>熱帶病</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">34.50</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">34.86</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">50.75</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">75.66</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">49.45</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">25.08</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>40歲至59歲</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">15.83</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">20.61</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">37.52</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">49.45</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">61.26</tgydF4y2Bad> <td char=".">32.99</tgydF4y2Bad> </tr> <tr> <td>≥60<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">11.47<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">11.50<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">14.96<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">25.08<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">32.99<hgydF4y2Bar></td> <td char=".">54.23<hgydF4y2Bar></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="table-wrap-foot"> <span id="fn-TBLFN8"></span> <div content-id="TBLFN8" class="footnote"> <span class="fn"><span class="label fn-label"><span rel="nofollow" data-fn-id="TBLFN8" class="end-note-link">*</gydF4y2Baspan></span><p class="chapter-para">獲取一個矩陣,並傳播率為一個特定的感染在一個特定的人口,這些條目應該乘以傳染性疾病特性值的參數<gydF4y2Baem>問</gydF4y2Baem>和除以總數量。</gydF4y2Bap></span> </div> </div> <div class=" graphic-wrap "> <a class="fig-view-orig at-tableViewLarge openInAnotherWindow btn js-view-large" target="_blank" href="//www.delf06.com/view-large/1400393">打開新標簽</一個> </div> </div> </div> <h3 scrollto-destination="1400394" id="1400394" class="section-title js-splitscreen-section-title">對數似函數傳遞參數</h3gydF4y2Ba> <div class=" block-child-p "> 給定一個下一代矩陣<gydF4y2Bastrong>N</gydF4y2Bastrong>各年齡段的比例,我們可以計算人員免疫在地方病平衡點。為年齡類感染的風險率<gydF4y2Baem>我</gydF4y2Baem>,用λ<gydF4y2Basub><em>我</gydF4y2Baem></sub>,取決於發病率在所有其他類時代<gydF4y2Baem>j</gydF4y2Baem>,用<gydF4y2Baem>y</gydF4y2Baem> <sub><em>j</gydF4y2Baem></sub>隨著年齡的增長,他們的聯係人<gydF4y2Baem>我</gydF4y2Baem>,用<gydF4y2Baem>n</gydF4y2Baem> <sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub>:<gydF4y2Badiv class="formula-wrap"> <div class="disp-formula" id="FDA4" content-id="FDA4"> <div class="tex-math display-math"> \ [\ mathrm{{\λ}}_{我}{=}{\總和}_ {j} n_ {ij} y_ {j} / w_{我}\]。</gydF4y2Badiv> </div> </div>我們表示年齡<gydF4y2Baem>一個</gydF4y2Baem>和年齡的上下邊界類<gydF4y2Baem>我</gydF4y2Baem>通過<gydF4y2Baem>一個</gydF4y2Baem> <sub><em>伊爾</gydF4y2Baem></sub>和<gydF4y2Baem>一個</gydF4y2Baem> <sub><em>國際單位</gydF4y2Baem></sub>。感染的風險率是恒定的類,在年齡和我們寫λ(<gydF4y2Baem>一個</gydF4y2Baem>)=λ<gydF4y2Basub><em>我</gydF4y2Baem></sub>如果<gydF4y2Baem>一個</gydF4y2Baem> <sub><em>伊爾</gydF4y2Baem></sub>≤<gydF4y2Baem>一個</gydF4y2Baem><<gydF4y2Baem>一個</gydF4y2Baem> <sub><em>國際單位</gydF4y2Baem></sub>。免疫比例<gydF4y2Baem>f</gydF4y2Baem>(<gydF4y2Baem>一個</gydF4y2Baem>)隨著年齡的增加<gydF4y2Badiv class="formula-wrap"> <div class="disp-formula" id="FDA5" content-id="FDA5"> <div class="tex-math display-math"> 1 \ [f () {=} {-} \ mathrm {exp} \離開({-}{{\ int} _ {u {=} 0} ^ {u {=}}} \ mathrm{{\λ}}(u) \ mathrm u \ d {}), \]</gydF4y2Badiv> </div> </div>和年齡班的發病率<gydF4y2Baem>我</gydF4y2Baem>是<gydF4y2Badiv class="formula-wrap"> <div class="disp-formula" id="FDA6" content-id="FDA6"> <div class="tex-math display-math"> \ [y_{我}{=}[f(現代{我u}) {-} f(現代{我l})] /[現代{我u}{-}現代{我l}]。\]</gydF4y2Badiv> </div> </div>重要的值λ<gydF4y2Basub><em>我</gydF4y2Baem></sub>解決<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-FDA4"></span> <a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="FDA4" data-open="FDA4" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">方程A4</一個>- - - - - -<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-FDA6"></span> <a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="FDA6" data-open="FDA6" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">A6</一個>發現數值開始從λ的積極價值嗎<gydF4y2Basub><em>我</gydF4y2Baem></sub>和應用方程迭代直至收斂。</gydF4y2Badiv> <div class=" block-child-p "> 給定一個下一代矩陣<gydF4y2Bastrong>N</gydF4y2Bastrong>各年齡段的比例,我們也可以計算人員免疫流行病發生後一個完全易感人群。免疫的年齡比例類<gydF4y2Baem>我</gydF4y2Baem>後用流行<gydF4y2Baem>z<gydF4y2Basub>我</gydF4y2Basub></em>。傳染性的人均數量聯係經曆年齡階層的流行<gydF4y2Baem>我</gydF4y2Baem>是<gydF4y2Badiv class="formula-wrap"> <div class="disp-formula" id="FDA7" content-id="FDA7"> <div class="tex-math display-math"> \ [{\ int} \ mathrm{{\λ}}_{我}(t) \ mathrm t d{}{=}{\總和}_ {j} n_ {ij} z_ {j} w_ {j} / w_{我}\]。</gydF4y2Badiv> </div> </div>感染的概率在時代班上流行<gydF4y2Baem>我</gydF4y2Baem>是<gydF4y2Baspan class="inline-formula no-formula-id"> <div class="tex-math display-math"> \ (1 {-}\ mathrm {exp} ({-} {\ int} \ mathrm{{\λ}}_{我}(t) \ mathrm {d} t) \)。</gydF4y2Badiv></span>將這個概率等同於<gydF4y2Baem>z<gydF4y2Basub>我</gydF4y2Basub></em>年齡班,免疫比例<gydF4y2Baem>我</gydF4y2Baem>疫情後,給了我們<gydF4y2Badiv class="formula-wrap"> <div class="disp-formula" id="FDA8" content-id="FDA8"> <div class="tex-math display-math"> 1 \ [z_{我}{=}{-}\ mathrm {exp} \離開({-}{\總和}_ {j} n_ {ij} z_ {j} w_ {j} / w_{我}\右)。\]</gydF4y2Badiv> </div> </div>重要的價值<gydF4y2Baem>z<gydF4y2Basub>我</gydF4y2Basub></em>解決<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-FDA8"></span> <a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="FDA8" data-open="FDA8" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">方程A8</一個>可以發現開始從任何值0 <<gydF4y2Baem>z</gydF4y2Baem> <sub><em>我</gydF4y2Baem></sub>< 1和應用這個方程迭代直至收斂。</gydF4y2Badiv> <div class=" block-child-p "> 我們觀察了年齡隊列(年)。測試人員年齡群的數量表示<gydF4y2Baem>g</gydF4y2Baem>(一)和免疫是由預期的比例<gydF4y2Baem>f</gydF4y2Baem>(一)。我們使用二項分布本(<gydF4y2Baem>g</gydF4y2Baem>(一),<gydF4y2Baem>f</gydF4y2Baem>(一))來描述免疫的人年齡群體的數量,用<gydF4y2Baem>h</gydF4y2Baem>(一)。二項式對數似函數<gydF4y2Badiv class="formula-wrap"> <div class="disp-formula" id="FDA9" content-id="FDA9"> <div class="fig-graphic"> <div class="jumplink-placeholder" id="amjepidkwj317fx4_ht.jpeg"> <img class="contentFigures" src="https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/aje/164/10/10.1093/aje/kwj317/2/m_amjepidkwj317fx4_ht.jpeg?Expires=1689125639&Signature=OS2bp~TAvxgFNoLnlqk24-Io1h1wmxGz~3QUHn65DOjImovHl~XhnHQHmmJNdz3dxM1kGDpeqC1yN9~PyLoylwTmU~wDfwruvKvRaW~zQnMwvbOhfZTukUtCXwRxU5xdZdD4z-EV5HuA3aXB39WMAqvyTBqecv-rdTyD33cdJcoTiY0Yi5jAYR8Sam8Ag3z2m4bD8PQuDDPFj5WHdaDP6zj1BKZdHuSt3FdeLxrYc2vxBZHOPtHHKayTtFg1Wq5UE0oVCa4HnB9Kz7h1FT9-PSyi1ECFgFt6zFanY1bdnvhivIOXvGgvasbfvxhflXY1Kmzaboseq6C94s5ypDbU2Q__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA" alt="公式gydF4y2Ba" data-path-from-xml="amjepidkwj317fx4_ht.jpeg"> </div> </div> </div> </div>參數θ取決於傳播的假設。</gydF4y2Badiv> <ul class="bullet"> <li><p class="chapter-para"><em>社會接觸假說</gydF4y2Baem>。我們的替代品<gydF4y2Bastrong>N</gydF4y2Bastrong>= (<gydF4y2Baem>n</gydF4y2Baem><sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub>)= (<gydF4y2Baem>qm</gydF4y2Baem><sub><em>ij</gydF4y2Baem></sub>)為下一代矩陣和最大化對數似函數θ=<gydF4y2Baem>問</gydF4y2Baem>。</gydF4y2Bap></li> <li><p class="chapter-para"><em>混合比例的假說</gydF4y2Baem>。流行性腮腺炎,我們最大化對數似函數θ=(λ<gydF4y2Basub>1</gydF4y2Basub>,λ<gydF4y2Basub>2</gydF4y2Basub>,λ<gydF4y2Basub>3</gydF4y2Basub>,λ<gydF4y2Basub>4</gydF4y2Basub>,λ<gydF4y2Basub>5</gydF4y2Basub>,λ<gydF4y2Basub>6</gydF4y2Basub>)在年齡= 0 = 100。對於流感,我們最大化對數似函數θ= (<gydF4y2Baem>z</gydF4y2Baem><sub>1</gydF4y2Basub>,<gydF4y2Baem>z</gydF4y2Baem><sub>2</gydF4y2Basub>,<gydF4y2Baem>z</gydF4y2Baem><sub>3</gydF4y2Basub>)在年齡= 0 = 20。</gydF4y2Bap></li> <li><p class="chapter-para"><em>均勻混合假設</gydF4y2Baem>。流行性腮腺炎,我們最大化對數似函數為θ=λ。對於流感,我們最大化對數似函數θ=<gydF4y2Baem>z</gydF4y2Baem>歲以上人群= 0 = 20。</gydF4y2Bap></li> </ul> <div class=" block-child-p "> 貝葉斯信息準則(BIC)或施瓦茲的標準計算<gydF4y2Badiv class="formula-wrap"> <div class="disp-formula" id="FDA10" content-id="FDA10"> <div class="fig-graphic"> <div class="jumplink-placeholder" id="amjepidkwj317fx5_ht.jpeg"> <img class="contentFigures" src="https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/aje/164/10/10.1093/aje/kwj317/2/m_amjepidkwj317fx5_ht.jpeg?Expires=1689125639&Signature=FHOMvpbZRP2u1QrJvsWeYQ84qU2dr7CI9-k0P~ufMC6KMaCxVgxSeRVQHJ9zSWuwmTTw7G44bhDii18xTNSUCGGMo4CVbfkIT-LQUA7ocJ3kmT37psZYoJYHodTKRf-rwbQQgsrl4uYoBdOdm0IL6BDE0yMXRoHAOZYE6dT5v2Kcp7KqYUzlKx0Az3pEKeLasqZnhRt0PPNIgrFkwQGUW61X9fakENYWDsEba6abazcZn0nA3g6kAODJJqHXSHrYPhAoAcy-SFskpx--SG2sEga85GE1Ba~AUTSGyL1MZZwafs1UYiFOTJHM34-5BiAKD9JyUBkXzXLXbZz33NitSg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA" alt="公式gydF4y2Ba" data-path-from-xml="amjepidkwj317fx5_ht.jpeg"> </div> </div> </div> </div>在哪裏<我米gclass="contentFigures lazy inline-graphic" src="https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/aje/164/10/10.1093/aje/kwj317/2/m_amjepidkwj317fx6_ht.jpeg?Expires=1689125639&Signature=k6OSkcbLnwvxHK2ONdf3YXNq20dgIXnj60gVtr7vY~IUKs3az4gI-7v070A~Nio7rwc8~MLumeuOPwP8TvwSxmvPpnZ9QgXqitQf5L2n7dZcnNk4gAFIa5JqtyE3VvyiJz6VO4oh779GGSzUlTalErITXWWelfl9MowV-rcDQDDZeSQfbp0PrkxZ~nPyxgCvd4BZoPWyGyTmTGQI4NWowMuFepAcGz8sFs94dc5uvaXq4V2mTWoyr-m2rCwsDVjqskcPNx8lShl9UNCARCooeZ30eMB3RjtKBoxUbSa7HiJewcPOeLwcXVfrcd7PYtrnDsIL0gOEL8j4ZvD7-UFK4A__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA" alt="圖形gydF4y2Ba" data-path-from-xml="amjepidkwj317fx6_ht.jpeg">表示最大化對數似(<gydF4y2Baspan class="xrefLink" id="jumplink-BIB26"></span> <a href="javascript:;" reveal-id="BIB26" data-open="BIB26" class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-default">26</一個>)。</gydF4y2Badiv> <div content-id="" class="footnote"> <span class="fn"> <div class="footnote-content"> <p class="footnote-compatibility"><strong><em>編者按:</gydF4y2Baem></strong><em>一個邀請評論這篇文章發表在頁麵<gydF4y2Baspan class="related-article"><a href="//www.delf06.com/lookup/XSLT_Related_Article_Replace_Href" data-vol="164" data-page="945">945年</一個></span></em>。</gydF4y2Bap> </div></span> </div> <p class="chapter-para">作者要感謝博士漢斯·範·Druten允許他們使用了迄今為止未sociologic和血清學的數據收集在烏得勒支,1986年奈梅亨,教授草Hethcote有用的評論前一版本的。</gydF4y2Bap> <p class="chapter-para">利益衝突:沒有宣布。</gydF4y2Bap> <h2 scrollto-destination="1400405" id="1400405" class="backreferences-title js-splitscreen-backreferences-title">引用</h2gydF4y2Ba> <div class="ref-list js-splitview-ref-list"> <div content-id="BIB1" class="js-splitview-ref-item" data-legacy-id="BIB1"> <div class="refLink-parent"> <span class="refLink"><a name="jumplink-BIB1" href="javascript:;" aria-label="jumplink-BIB1" data-id=""></a></span> </div> <div class="ref false"> <div id="ref-auto-BIB1" class="ref-content " data-id="BIB1"> <span class="label">1。</gydF4y2Baspan> <div class="mixed-citation citation"> <p class="mixed-citation-compatibility">海曼DL,艾德。控製傳染病的手冊。18。華盛頓:美國公共衛生協會</gydF4y2Bap> <div class="year"> 2004年</gydF4y2Badiv>。<gydF4y2Bap></p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div content-id="BIB2" class="js-splitview-ref-item" data-legacy-id="BIB2"> <div class="refLink-parent"> <span class="refLink"><a name="jumplink-BIB2" href="javascript:;" aria-label="jumplink-BIB2" data-id=""></a></span> </div> <div class="ref false"> <div id="ref-auto-BIB2" class="ref-content " data-id="BIB2"> <span class="label">2。</gydF4y2Baspan> <div class="mixed-citation citation"> <p class="mixed-citation-compatibility">Longini IM Jr, Halloran指出E,尼紮姆,等。含大流行性流感與抗病毒藥物。</gydF4y2Bap> <div class="source "> 我增加</gydF4y2Badiv> <div class="year"> 2004年</gydF4y2Badiv>;<gydF4y2Badiv class="volume"> 159年</gydF4y2Badiv>:<gydF4y2Badiv class="fpage"> 623年</gydF4y2Badiv>-33年。<gydF4y2Bap></p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div content-id="BIB3" class="js-splitview-ref-item" data-legacy-id="BIB3"> <div class="refLink-parent"> <span class="refLink"><a name="jumplink-BIB3" href="javascript:;" aria-label="jumplink-BIB3" data-id=""></a></span> </div> <div class="ref false"> <div id="ref-auto-BIB3" class="ref-content " data-id="BIB3"> <span class="label">3所示。</gydF4y2Baspan> <div class="mixed-citation citation"> <p class="mixed-citation-compatibility">弗格森NM,弗雷澤C,唐納利CA, et al。禽流感H5N1流感流行的公共衛生風險。</gydF4y2Bap> <div class="source "> 科學</gydF4y2Badiv> <div class="year"> 2004年</gydF4y2Badiv>;<gydF4y2Badiv class="volume"> 304年</gydF4y2Badiv>:<gydF4y2Badiv class="fpage"> 968年</gydF4y2Badiv>9。<gydF4y2Bap></p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div content-id="BIB4" class="js-splitview-ref-item" data-legacy-id="BIB4"> <div class="refLink-parent"> <span class="refLink"><a name="jumplink-BIB4" href="javascript:;" aria-label="jumplink-BIB4" data-id=""></a></span> </div> <div class="ref false"> <div id="ref-auto-BIB4" class="ref-content " data-id="BIB4"> <span class="label">4所示。</gydF4y2Baspan> <div class="mixed-citation citation"> <p class="mixed-citation-compatibility">哈我,小Longini IM,尼紮姆,包含描述天花等。。</gydF4y2Bap> <div class="source "> 科學</gydF4y2Badiv> <div class="year"> 2002年</gydF4y2Badiv>;<gydF4y2Badiv class="volume"> 298年</gydF4y2Badiv>:<gydF4y2Badiv class="fpage"> 1428年</gydF4y2Badiv>-32年。<gydF4y2Bap></p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div content-id="BIB5" class="js-splitview-ref-item" data-legacy-id="BIB5"> <div class="refLink-parent"> <span class="refLink"><a name="jumplink-BIB5" href="javascript:;" aria-label="jumplink-BIB5" data-id=""></a></span> </div> <div class="ref false"> <div id="ref-auto-BIB5" class="ref-content " data-id="BIB5"> <span class="label">5。</gydF4y2Baspan> <div class="mixed-citation citation"> <p class="mixed-citation-compatibility">弗格森NM, Keeling MJ,埃德蒙,WJ et al。規劃天花爆發。</gydF4y2Bap> <div class="source "> 自然</gydF4y2Badiv> <div class="year"> 2003年</gydF4y2Badiv>;<gydF4y2Badiv class="volume"> 425年</gydF4y2Badiv>:<gydF4y2Badiv class="fpage"> 681年</gydF4y2Badiv>5。<gydF4y2Bap></p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div content-id="BIB6" class="js-splitview-ref-item" data-legacy-id="BIB6"> <div class="refLink-parent"> <span class="refLink"><a name="jumplink-BIB6" href="javascript:;" aria-label="jumplink-BIB6" data-id=""></a></span> </div> <div class="ref false"> <div id="ref-auto-BIB6" class="ref-content " data-id="BIB6"> <span class="label">6。</gydF4y2Baspan> <div class="mixed-citation citation"> <p class="mixed-citation-compatibility">Gani R,浸出s造型肺鼠疫疫情的流行病學因素。</gydF4y2Bap> <div class="source "> 緊急情況感染說</gydF4y2Badiv> <div class="year"> 2004年</gydF4y2Badiv>;<gydF4y2Badiv class="volume"> 10</gydF4y2Badiv>:<gydF4y2Badiv class="fpage"> 608年</gydF4y2Badiv>-14年。<gydF4y2Bap></p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div content-id="BIB7" class="js-splitview-ref-item" data-legacy-id="BIB7"> <div class="refLink-parent"> <span class="refLink"><a name="jumplink-BIB7" href="javascript:;" aria-label="jumplink-BIB7" data-id=""></a></span> </div> <div class="ref false"> <div id="ref-auto-BIB7" class="ref-content " data-id="BIB7"> <span class="label">7所示。</gydF4y2Baspan> <div class="mixed-citation citation"> <p class="mixed-citation-compatibility">Schenzle d的一個非自治模型預處理和接種後麻疹傳播。</gydF4y2Bap> <div class="source "> 地中海IMA J數學雜誌</gydF4y2Badiv> <div class="year"> 1984年</gydF4y2Badiv>;<gydF4y2Badiv class="volume"> 1</gydF4y2Badiv>:<gydF4y2Badiv class="fpage"> 169年</gydF4y2Badiv>-91年。<gydF4y2Bap></p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div content-id="BIB8" class="js-splitview-ref-item" data-legacy-id="BIB8"> <div class="refLink-parent"> <span class="refLink"><a name="jumplink-BIB8" href="javascript:;" aria-label="jumplink-BIB8" data-id=""></a></span> </div> <div class="ref false"> <div id="ref-auto-BIB8" class="ref-content " data-id="BIB8"> <span class="label">8。</gydF4y2Baspan> <div class="mixed-citation citation"> <p class="mixed-citation-compatibility">安德森RM, RM。與年齡相關的疾病傳播率的變化:影響疫苗接種規劃的設計。</gydF4y2Bap> <div class="source "> J Hyg綜眼</gydF4y2Badiv> <div class="year"> 1985年</gydF4y2Badiv>;<gydF4y2Badiv class="volume"> 94年</gydF4y2Badiv>:<gydF4y2Badiv class="fpage"> 365年</gydF4y2Badiv>-436年。<gydF4y2Bap></p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div content-id="BIB9" class="js-splitview-ref-item" data-legacy-id="BIB9"> <div class="refLink-parent"> <span class="refLink"><a name="jumplink-BIB9" href="javascript:;" aria-label="jumplink-BIB9" data-id=""></a></span> </div> <div class="ref false"> <div id="ref-auto-BIB9" class="ref-content " data-id="BIB9"> <span class="label">9。</gydF4y2Baspan> <div class="mixed-citation citation"> <p class="mixed-citation-compatibility">法靈頓CP、Kanaan錳、同性戀新澤西。估計的基本生殖傳染病從age-stratified血清學調查數據。</gydF4y2Bap> <div class="source "> J R統計Soc Ser C統計</gydF4y2Badiv> <div class="year"> 2001年</gydF4y2Badiv>;<gydF4y2Badiv class="volume"> 50</gydF4y2Badiv>:<gydF4y2Badiv class="fpage"> 251年</gydF4y2Badiv>-92年。<gydF4y2Bap></p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div content-id="BIB10" class="js-splitview-ref-item" data-legacy-id="BIB10"> <div class="refLink-parent"> <span class="refLink"><a name="jumplink-BIB10" href="javascript:;" aria-label="jumplink-BIB10" data-id=""></a></span> </div> <div class="ref false"> <div id="ref-auto-BIB10" class="ref-content " data-id="BIB10"> <span class="label">10。</gydF4y2Baspan> <div class="mixed-citation citation"> <p class="mixed-citation-compatibility">Hethcote HW。異構混合在傳染病動力學建模。:Isham V,混合泳G, eds。感染人類疾病模型:其結構和關係數據。英國劍橋:劍橋大學出版社,</gydF4y2Bap> <div class="year"> 1996年</gydF4y2Badiv>:215 - 38。<gydF4y2Bap></p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div content-id="BIB11" class="js-splitview-ref-item" data-legacy-id="BIB11"> <div class="refLink-parent"> <span class="refLink"><a name="jumplink-BIB11" href="javascript:;" aria-label="jumplink-BIB11" data-id=""></a></span> </div> <div class="ref false"> <div id="ref-auto-BIB11" class="ref-content " data-id="BIB11"> <span class="label">11。</gydF4y2Baspan> <div class="mixed-citation citation"> <p class="mixed-citation-compatibility">沃利咖J, Levy-Bruhl D,同性戀新澤西,et al。估計消除麻疹繁殖率和前景的麻疹疫苗接種在一些西歐國家。</gydF4y2Bap> <div class="source "> 論文感染</gydF4y2Badiv> <div class="year"> 2001年</gydF4y2Badiv>;<gydF4y2Badiv class="volume"> 127年</gydF4y2Badiv>:<gydF4y2Badiv class="fpage"> 281年</gydF4y2Badiv>-95年。<gydF4y2Bap></p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div content-id="BIB12" class="js-splitview-ref-item" data-legacy-id="BIB12"> <div class="refLink-parent"> <span class="refLink"><a name="jumplink-BIB12" href="javascript:;" aria-label="jumplink-BIB12" data-id=""></a></span> </div> <div class="ref false"> <div id="ref-auto-BIB12" class="ref-content " data-id="BIB12"> <span class="label">12。</gydF4y2Baspan> <div class="mixed-citation citation"> <p class="mixed-citation-compatibility">法靈頓Kanaan MN, CP。矩陣模型為兒童感染:風疹和流行性腮腺炎的貝葉斯方法與應用程序。</gydF4y2Bap> <div class="source "> 論文感染</gydF4y2Badiv> <div class="year"> 2005年</gydF4y2Badiv>;<gydF4y2Badiv class="volume"> 133年</gydF4y2Badiv>:<gydF4y2Badiv class="fpage"> 1009年</gydF4y2Badiv>-21年。<gydF4y2Bap></p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div content-id="BIB13" class="js-splitview-ref-item" data-legacy-id="BIB13"> <div class="refLink-parent"> <span class="refLink"><a name="jumplink-BIB13" href="javascript:;" aria-label="jumplink-BIB13" data-id=""></a></span> </div> <div class="ref false"> <div id="ref-auto-BIB13" class="ref-content " data-id="BIB13"> <span class="label">13。</gydF4y2Baspan> <div class="mixed-citation citation"> <p class="mixed-citation-compatibility">弗格森NM,卡明斯DAT Cauchemez年代,et al .策略包含一個新興的流感大流行在東南亞。</gydF4y2Bap> <div class="source "> 自然</gydF4y2Badiv> <div class="year"> 2005年</gydF4y2Badiv>;<gydF4y2Badiv class="volume"> 437年</gydF4y2Badiv>:<gydF4y2Badiv class="fpage"> 209年</gydF4y2Badiv>-14年。<gydF4y2Bap></p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div content-id="BIB14" class="js-splitview-ref-item" data-legacy-id="BIB14"> <div class="refLink-parent"> <span class="refLink"><a name="jumplink-BIB14" href="javascript:;" aria-label="jumplink-BIB14" data-id=""></a></span> </div> <div class="ref false"> <div id="ref-auto-BIB14" class="ref-content " data-id="BIB14"> <span class="label">14。</gydF4y2Baspan> <div class="mixed-citation citation"> <p class="mixed-citation-compatibility">Longini IM Jr,尼紮姆,徐年代,等。含大流行性流感的來源。</gydF4y2Bap> <div class="source "> 科學</gydF4y2Badiv> <div class="year"> 2005年</gydF4y2Badiv>;<gydF4y2Badiv class="volume"> 309年</gydF4y2Badiv>:<gydF4y2Badiv class="fpage"> 1083年</gydF4y2Badiv>7所示。<gydF4y2Bap></p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div content-id="BIB15" class="js-splitview-ref-item" data-legacy-id="BIB15"> <div class="refLink-parent"> <span class="refLink"><a name="jumplink-BIB15" href="javascript:;" aria-label="jumplink-BIB15" data-id=""></a></span> </div> <div class="ref false"> <div id="ref-auto-BIB15" class="ref-content " data-id="BIB15"> <span class="label">15。</gydF4y2Baspan> <div class="mixed-citation citation"> <p class="mixed-citation-compatibility">Eubank年代,Guclu H, Kumar VSA等。造型疾病暴發在現實城市社會網絡。</gydF4y2Bap> <div class="source "> 自然</gydF4y2Badiv> <div class="year"> 2004年</gydF4y2Badiv>;<gydF4y2Badiv class="volume"> 429年</gydF4y2Badiv>:<gydF4y2Badiv class="fpage"> 180年</gydF4y2Badiv>4所示。<gydF4y2Bap></p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div content-id="BIB16" class="js-splitview-ref-item" data-legacy-id="BIB16"> <div class="refLink-parent"> <span class="refLink"><a name="jumplink-BIB16" href="javascript:;" aria-label="jumplink-BIB16" data-id=""></a></span> </div> <div class="ref false"> <div id="ref-auto-BIB16" class="ref-content " data-id="BIB16"> <span class="label">16。</gydF4y2Baspan> <div class="mixed-citation citation"> <p class="mixed-citation-compatibility">範Geuns哈,梅耶爾J, Styblo k鹿特丹聯係檢查的結果,1967 - 1969。</gydF4y2Bap> <div class="source "> 牛Int聯盟Tuberc</gydF4y2Badiv> <div class="year"> 1975年</gydF4y2Badiv>;<gydF4y2Badiv class="volume"> 50</gydF4y2Badiv>:<gydF4y2Badiv class="fpage"> 107年</gydF4y2Badiv>-21年。<gydF4y2Bap></p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div content-id="BIB17" class="js-splitview-ref-item" data-legacy-id="BIB17"> <div class="refLink-parent"> <span class="refLink"><a name="jumplink-BIB17" href="javascript:;" aria-label="jumplink-BIB17" data-id=""></a></span> </div> <div class="ref false"> <div id="ref-auto-BIB17" class="ref-content " data-id="BIB17"> <span class="label">17所示。</gydF4y2Baspan> <div class="mixed-citation citation"> <p class="mixed-citation-compatibility">鮑威爾Sattenspiel L, c .地理多米尼加島上的麻疹傳播,西印度群島。</gydF4y2Bap> <div class="source "> 嗡嗡聲雜誌</gydF4y2Badiv> <div class="year"> 1993年</gydF4y2Badiv>;<gydF4y2Badiv class="volume"> 65年</gydF4y2Badiv>:<gydF4y2Badiv class="fpage"> 107年</gydF4y2Badiv>-29年。<gydF4y2Bap></p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div content-id="BIB18" class="js-splitview-ref-item" data-legacy-id="BIB18"> <div class="refLink-parent"> <span class="refLink"><a name="jumplink-BIB18" href="javascript:;" aria-label="jumplink-BIB18" data-id=""></a></span> </div> <div class="ref false"> <div id="ref-auto-BIB18" class="ref-content " data-id="BIB18"> <span class="label">18歲。</gydF4y2Baspan> <div class="mixed-citation citation"> <p class="mixed-citation-compatibility">埃德蒙,WJ奧卡拉漢CJ, nokia DJ。誰與誰?方法來確定接觸的成人模式可能會導致空氣傳染疾病的傳播。</gydF4y2Bap> <div class="source "> Proc R Soc Lond B</gydF4y2Badiv> <div class="year"> 1997年</gydF4y2Badiv>;<gydF4y2Badiv class="volume"> 264年</gydF4y2Badiv>:<gydF4y2Badiv class="fpage"> 949年</gydF4y2Badiv>-57年。<gydF4y2Bap></p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div content-id="BIB19" class="js-splitview-ref-item" data-legacy-id="BIB19"> <div class="refLink-parent"> <span class="refLink"><a name="jumplink-BIB19" href="javascript:;" aria-label="jumplink-BIB19" data-id=""></a></span> </div> <div class="ref false"> <div id="ref-auto-BIB19" class="ref-content " data-id="BIB19"> <span class="label">19所示。</gydF4y2Baspan> <div class="mixed-citation citation"> <p class="mixed-citation-compatibility">沃利咖J,埃德蒙,WJ Kretzschmar m .人際交往模式和空氣傳播的傳染病。</gydF4y2Bap> <div class="source "> 趨勢Microbiol</gydF4y2Badiv> <div class="year"> 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